Based on projections in the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s Annual Energy Outlook 2016 (AEO2016), U.S. tight oil production is expected to reach 7.08 million barrels per day (b/d), and shale gas production is expected to reach 79 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2040. These values reflect Reference case projections, while several side cases with different assumptions of oil prices, technological advances, and resource availability have different levels of tight oil and shale gas production.
The Financial Times recently reported on Big Oil’s struggles in 2015
With oil prices breaking below $30/B, they are close to ‘the sky is falling’ levels promised by Goldman Sachs some months ago. Clearly the oil markets are at or nearing a cyclical bottom. Soon the key question will change.
With the U.S. Congress failing to disapprove the Iranian nuclear deal, it enters into force as a Presidential Executive Order. The deal is widely recognized to have flaws and weaknesses. In recognition of these facts, acknowledged supporters are now opining on how the U.S. should act to maximize prospects for Iran’s compliance. Quietly, some Republicans have also taken an interest in enforcing the Agreement rather than simply vacating it if they gain the Presidency. Both camps should look at the possibilities presented by oil diplomacy as offering the best means for encouraging Iranian compliance.
Another OPEC General Meeting has produced a spate of reporting on oil prices. Principal news: no change is expected in the cartel’s 30 MB/D production quota. Principal conclusions: OPEC has lost pricing power, American shale frackers have been very successful in reducing costs while becoming the globe’s ‘swing producer,’ and the global market remains oversupplied by some 2 MB/D. With OPEC already producing above its quota and with a prospective Iranian nuclear deal on the horizon, oversupply isn’t going away soon. In fact, it may get worse before it gets better. The prospect of another price drop below $50/b must be taken seriously.
The Kenan-Flagler Energy Center and the Energy Club will host a conference on Global Fracking next April 1, 2016. The conference seeks to answer why the stunning success of fracking in the United States has not been duplicated elsewhere. In the process, it seeks to identify what has to happen for global fracking to ‘get off the ground.’ This overview outlines the issues cited as impeding fracking’s dissemination and lists key questions for the conference to address.
As students, faculty and energy industry experts convened to celebrate the launch of the UNC Kenan-Flagler Energy Concentration, discussions centered on topics that will define the industry for years to come: Fossil fuels and sustainability, and conflict resolution.
UNC will host its second annual NC Clean Tech Summit Feb. 19-20. The event highlights the latest innovations, trends and challenges and North Carolina’s central role in the growing clean-technology industry.
A new MBA Energy Concentration and Energy Center will prepare graduates to assume leadership roles within the ranks of multinational corporations, independent producers, power generators, renewables firms, and financial and consulting firms that do business with energy-related companies.