This paper investigates changes in firm spending following changes in shareholder taxes. We show that firms with less elastic demand for equity capital will expand operations less than other firms following shareholder tax cuts. Since financial constraint is a factor that diminishes a firms demand elasticity for capital, we predict that financially constrained firms expand less than other companies following shareholder tax reductions.
We derive cross-sectional implications of a capital gains tax rate change on the risk-return tradeoff on stock investment and show that stocks with higher accrued capital gains experience a larger risk-return tradeoff improvement after a capital gains tax rate cut. Stocks with higher dividend yields experience a larger increase (decrease) in the risk-return tradeoff when the dividend tax penalty effect dominates (is dominated by) the effect of reduced dividend yield associated with the capital gains tax cut.
We introduce easy to implement regression-based methods for predicting quarterly real economic activity that use daily financial data. Our analysis is designed to elucidate the value of daily information and provide real-time forecast updates of the current (nowcasting) and future quarters.
We study a new class of conditional skewness models based on conditional quantiles regressions. The approach is much inspired by work of Hal White. To handle multiple horizons I consider quantile MIDAS regressions which amount to direct forecasting—as opposed to iterated forecasting—conditional skewness.
Volatility component models have received considerable attention recently, not only because of their ability to capture complex dynamics via a parsimonious parameter structure, but also because it is believed that they can handle well structural breaks or nonstationarities in asset price volatility.
Recognizing that initial public offerings (IPOs) represent the debut of private firms on the public stage, this study investigates how pre-IPO customer and competitor orientations (CCOs) affect IPO outcomes.
We consider a firm that can use one of several costly learning modes to dynamically reduce uncertainty about the unknown value of a project. Each learning mode incurs cost at a particular rate and provides information of a particular quality. In addition to dynamic decisions about its learning mode, the firm must decide when to stop learning and either invest or abandon the project.
We measure a bank’s connectedness by constructing a measure of its text similarity with other banks based on 10-K business description and MD&A discussions. We find that tail-risk comovement between a given bank and the banking system is increasing in the bank’s average similarity.
We evaluate sell-side equity analysts’ multiyear forecasted income statements, balance sheets and cash flow statements, and the profitability, efficiency and leverage ratios that they imply.
The prevailing view of implied volatility comovements, IVC, defined as the correlation between a firm’s implied volatility and the market’s implied volatility, is that they indicate the presence of systematic volatility risk to the firm’s investors. We take a different stance and conjecture that implied volatility comovements can also indicate expected information arrival for both the firm and aggregate equity markets, and we find evidence supporting this view.
In this second part of our family business series, we take a look at Vietri, America's largest company selling fine Italian tableware. The metaphor of beautiful, fragile crockery is rather apt in the context of family-owned businesses, which can be destroyed in the blink of an eye unless there is an abiding commitment to handling it with care--across generations. Yes, we are talking succession planning, still the Achilles' heel of several painstakingly built enterprises.
The image of the ‘home’ is central to family businesses, beyond its obvious role as the mooring ground for generations of entrepreneurs. Entrepreneurs often find it difficult to keep home and business apart—which is why the story of a home that is itself the business can offer many fascinating lessons. The Biltmore Estate, America’s largest private home and a National Historic Landmark, is today an 8,000-acre, 1,800-employee enterprise, run by a fourth-generation family hand. The estate defies an old myth—that family businesses don’t last beyond three generations. Evolving from just a tourist attraction to a luxury hotel, a winery, a home products line and an equestrian center, Biltmore has been a celebrated model of sustainable growth held together by a strong family anchor over nearly twelve decades. This article explores Biltmore’s mix of family-led and professional management, and how the grand estate is gearing up for the future.
We propose a novel method of estimating default probabilities using equity option data. The resulting default probabilities are highly correlated with estimates of default probabilities extracted from CDS spreads, which assume constant recovery rates. Additionally, the option implied default probabilities are higher in bad economic times and for firms with poorer credit ratings and financial positions.
Innovation, the implementation of creative ideas, involves a dialogue between two roles: creators - who generate creative ideas, and evaluators-who determine which ideas to implement. Although each role aids innovation, we reveal that each role may also shape creativity assessments in different ways. In two experiments, participants randomly assigned to either an evaluator or creator role rated the same idea described as having low or high levels of novelty.
Kenan Institute Executive Director Greg Brown, Director of Research Christian Lundblad and Senior Research Associate Philip Howard's research warns of the risks of investing in crowded hedge funds – particularly during periods of market distress. “The crowdedness of an equity position is an important ingredient for characterizing risk,” the trio wrote in their latest paper "Crowded Trades and Tail Risks."
Motivated by challenges faced by firms entering an unknown market, we study a strategic investment problem in a duopoly setting. The favorableness of the market is unknown to both firms, but firms have prior information about it. A leader invests first by choosing its investment size. Then, in a continuous-time Bayesian setting, a competitive follower dynamically learns about whether the market is favorable or not by observing the leader’s earnings, and chooses its investment size and timing. In this setting, we characterize equilibrium strategies of firms.
We find striking differences across economic states in how monthly and quarterly stock returns are related to changes in inflation expectations.