Over 1960 to 2017, we show that a positive risk premium from holding high-beta stocks (versus low-beta stocks) and small-cap stocks (versus large-cap stocks) is reliably earned only after the expected stock-market volatility breaches an approximate top-quintile threshold. The high conditional average returns with this nonlinear risk-return phenomenon are persistently evident over months t+1 to t+6 following a volatility-threshold breach in month t-1.
Over the 1990 to 2014 period, we show that the macroeconomic-uncertainty index of Jurado, Ludvigson, and Ng (2015) is a powerful determinant of the slope in Treasury forward interest rates over the 10- to 30-year term-structure segment.
We model leverage cycles in the natural laboratory of a mature asset class, namely US Commercial Real Estate. In this setting we can observe entrepreneurs' asset values as well as debt balance and thus model capital-market yields, as conditioned by market-wide leverage, which indicates debt availability. Using a VAR framework, we examine variance decompositions and impulse-response functions. We show that leverage constitutes the primary driver of innovations in capital-market yields and vice versa. We further find evidence for flight to quality as well as knock-on effects that affect low-leverage entrepreneurs in the market.
We find striking differences across economic states in how monthly and quarterly stock returns are related to changes in inflation expectations.