The spread between 10-year and 3-month Treasuries – my favorite economic indicator – remains strongly in positive territory, suggesting a recession is not in the cards soon. This indicator has predicted all recessions since the mid-1960s, with a lead time of roughly one year, though the timing is inexact. The 10-year/2-year spread, which briefly inverted recently, is less reliable.
The goal of this paper is to conduct a survival analysis to determine the causal impact of federal R&D subsidies on firms’ long-term survival.
The AI transformation has yet to happen, prompting uncertainty about potential impacts on the skills gap and the nature of work. Recognizing this will help us develop strategies for mitigating potential risks to workers, firms and the economy.
In a recent paper, “Demystifying Illiquid Assets – Expected Returns for Private Equity,” Ilmanen, Chandra and McQuinn (of AQR) give a perspective on the past, present, and expected future performance of private equity. They conclude that “private equity does not seem to offer as attractive a net-of-fee return edge over public market counterparts as it did 15-20 years ago from either a historical or forward-looking perspective.” This analysis provides our perspective based on more recent and, we think, more reliable data and performance measures – the historical perspective is more positive than Ilmanen et al. portray.
In kicking off the new year, we at the Kenan Institute want to highlight five topics we anticipate will be top of mind for business leaders and policymakers during the 12 months ahead. Although some of these challenges – such as the recession we expect – can be painful, they also present opportunities. To help you navigate this rapidly evolving economic landscape, the Kenan Institute will work to provide solutions-focused analysis on the following as well as related issues throughout 2023.
In May 2020, UNC Kenan-Flagler Business School and the Kenan Institute of Private Enterprise established the North Carolina CEO Leadership Forum to provide private sector leaders with a venue to comment on the opportunities and challenges facing the North Carolina economy in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. As the pandemic has distorted business activity in the short term, it has also created new long-term growth opportunities for North Carolina. Next week, the Kenan Institute and the forum will publish the research white paper Seven Forces Reshaping the Economy. The full paper details seven major economic and business trends, or forces, the COVID-19 pandemic has produced that will permanently alter both the U.S. and North Carolina economies. This summary outlines those forces, the opportunities available to North Carolina and policy recommendations the state should consider to capitalize on a rapidly changing economy.
This special issue is intended to present the state-of-the-art research progress on related subjects and to foster additional research in this important emerging area in production and operations management.
Prior research suggests that female negotiators often obtain worse outcomes than male negotiators. The current research examines whether this pattern extends to the large subset of men and women who identify as gays and lesbians. In particular, we interweave scholarship on gender stereotypes with work on intersectionality and MOSAIC theory to develop a theoretical model that anticipates how male and female negotiators will be treated at the bargaining table based on whether they are perceived to be heterosexual or homosexual. This model predicts that homosexual women, like heterosexual men, will receive more beneficial negotiation offers and outcomes than heterosexual women and homosexual men.
Examining the strategy formation process is central to understanding why some firms in entrepreneurial settings create competitive advantage and succeed while others do not. While existing work shows the value of learning from experience or having a holistic understanding of how the pieces fit together, there is limited empirical research that fuses the two streams. We first review the extant literature on strategy formation in entrepreneurial settings by organizing around this fundamental tension between strategizing by “doing” versus “thinking.” We then describe recent work that blends the two and conclude with a future research agenda.
Research suggests that women negotiators tend to obtain worse outcomes than men; however, we argue this finding does not apply to all women. Integrating research on social hierarchies, gender in negotiations, and intersectional stereotype content, we develop a theoretical framework that explains the interactive effect of race and gender on offers and outcomes received in distributive negotiations.
The tools for crowdsourcing have been a research focus for quite some time. However, even today, crowdsourcing platforms have remained rather technologically rudimentary as simply idea dropboxes and discussion forums. Our research has indicated that technical modifications to current crowdsourcing platforms are needed for crowds to generate more novel and useful solutions.
The executive labor market (ELM) is a topic of interest that spans several academic fields. The outcomes of the ELM, including executive selection, succession, and compensation, are important considerations as they influence executive decision making and other organizational outcomes. Yet, a comprehensive framework of ELM dynamics currently does not exist. To address this shortcoming, we reviewed the existing literature using five fundamental questions: (1) What executive jobs are available? (2) Who is available to fill executive jobs, and what is valued on the ELM? (3) Who signals interest in the executive jobs? (4) Who gets offered/accepts the executive job, and what is the agreed-upon compensation? (5) How do status and social capital influence ELM outcomes? By answering these questions, our review provides a framework for integrating existing research on the ELM while suggesting avenues for future research.
We examine whether changes to corporate governance arising from board reforms affect corporate tax behavior. While the relation between corporate governance and tax behavior has been the subject of intense interest in the literature, prior research has been hampered by a lack of exogenous variation.
Accounting rules, through their interactions with capital regulations, affect financial institutions’ trading behavior. The insurance industry provides a laboratory to explore these interactions: life insurers have greater flexibility than property and casualty insurers to hold speculative-grade assets at historical cost, and the degree to which life insurers recognize market values differs across U.S. states. During the financial crisis, insurers facing a lesser degree of market value recognition are less likely to sell downgraded asset-backed securities. To improve their capital positions, these insurers disproportionately resort to gains trading, selectively selling otherwise unrelated bonds with high unrealized gains, transmitting shocks across markets.
We provide empirical evidence for the existence, magnitude, and economic cost of stigma associated with banks borrowing from the Federal Reserve's Discount Window (DW) during the 2007-2008 financial crisis.
North Carolina’s 100 counties have experienced an uneven pattern of growth and development over the past decade or so, even during the pandemic, when the state was a magnet for migration. At one end, metropolitan and amenity-rich counties captured most of the growth between April 1, 2020, and July 1, 2021; at the other, 21 counties experienced net out-migration. Given these disparities, the Urban Investment Strategies Center offers an approach using targeted economic development strategies.
The COVID-19 pandemic has put 18 million jobs at small businesses in the U.S. at risk – which could as much as quadruple the nation’s total unemployment rate. The effects of both the coronavirus and recent government relief programs were explored by a panel of Kenan Institute-convened experts during a press briefing held yesterday. The full recording of this briefing—along with a deeper-dive analysis on the specific implications of the financial downturn on small business employment by Kenan Institute Research Director Professor Christian Lundblad and UNC Kenan-Flagler Business School Professor Paige Ouimet—is available in this week’s Kenan Insight.
On Friday, April 13, the Kenan Institute of Private Enterprise hosted its inaugural, day-long Global Trade, Global Trade-Offs: Emerging Challenges in International Commerce Conference at UNC’s Kenan-Flagler Business School. The day’s events featured plenaries, panel discussions and Q&A sessions with highly distinguished members of business, economics and academia focused largely on the rapidly evolving landscape of international trade.
The objective for this symposium is to inspire academic and industry experts to work together to generate and share new knowledge about private equity based on objective empirical research.