We examine whether the contribution of firm-level accounting earnings to the informativeness of the aggregate is tilted towards earnings with specific financial reporting characteristics. Specifically, we investigate whether considering the smoothness of firm-level earnings increases the informativeness of aggregate earnings for future real GDP, and if so, whether macroeconomic forecasters use this information efficiently. Using recently-developed mixed data sampling methods, we find that the aggregate is tilted towards firms with smoother earnings and that this composition of aggregate earnings outperforms traditional weighting schemes.
We investigate the spatial dependence between commercial and residential mortgage defaults. A new class of observation-driven frailty factor models is introduced to do so. The idea of dynamic parameters embedded in the class of GAS models is utilized to estimate dynamic models of default risk with potentially multiple factors which are driven by stratified grouping of large panels of mortgage loan records. The score dynamics in the models is driven by so-called generalized residuals, and have therefore a fairly intuitive interpretation of ARMA-like dynamics. The proposed models are computationally easy to implement and therefore attractive in big data applications, something that gives them a considerable advantage in comparison to the typical latent factor frailty models proposed in the literature.
A new article in the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond’s quarterly newsletter, Econ Focus, discusses the spillover effects of U.S. monetary policy on the economies of other countries. The article cites research conducted by Kenan Institute Director of Research Christian Lundblad, UNC Kenan-Flagler Business School Professor of Finance and UNC-Chapel Hill Professor of Economics Anusha Chari, and UNC graduate student Karlye Dilts Stedman on the effects of U.S. monetary policy shocks on emerging market countries over a period of 22 years.
Recent health policy efforts have attempted to promote constructive conversations regarding cost-effectiveness by increasing transparency for both patients and physicians. Spurred by access and cost challenges resulting from increasing pharmaceutical prices, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) proposed a rule that would require direct-to-consumer prescription drug advertisements to include the list price for a typical 30-day course of therapy, according to their weighted average cost. This Viewpoint discusses implementing price transparency for health care products and services where physicians spend an increasing proportion of their time—in electronic health records (EHRs).
A detailed treatment of aggregation and capital heterogeneity substantially improves the performance of the investment CAPM. Firm-level predicted returns are constructed from firm-level accounting variables and aggregated to the portfolio level to match with portfolio-level stock returns. Working capital forms a separate productive input besides physical capital. The model fits well the value, momentum, investment, and profitability premiums simultaneously and partially explains positive stock-fundamental return correlations, the procyclical and short-term dynamics of the momentum and profitability premiums, as well as the countercyclical and long-term dynamics of the value and investment premiums. However, the model falls short in explaining momentum crashes.
Motivated by challenges faced by firms entering an unknown market, we study a strategic investment problem in a duopoly setting. The favorableness of the market is unknown to both firms, but firms have prior information about it. A leader invests first by choosing its investment size. Then, in a continuous-time Bayesian setting, a competitive follower dynamically learns about whether the market is favorable or not by observing the leader’s earnings, and chooses its investment size and timing. In this setting, we characterize equilibrium strategies of firms.
The selection of novel ideas is vital to the development of truly innovative products. Firms often turn to idea crowdsourcing challenges, in which both ideators and the seeker firms participate in the idea selection process. Yet prior research cautions that ideators and seeker firms may not select novel ideas. To address the links between idea novelty and selection, this study proposes a bi-faceted notion of idea novelty and probes the role of task structure.
Does the availability of health insurance for young adults affect entrepreneurial behavior? This paper proposes that policy effects may go beyond the binary, and shape choices around entrepreneurial form, such as incorporation. I use the adoption of 38 dependent coverage mandates in 31 states, passed from 1986 to 2013, and the adoption of a federal mandate in 2010 to analyze the relationship between non-employer provided insurance and entrepreneurial activity.
We investigate tax planning by privately-held corporations. Privately-held firms are commonly believed to face lower costs of tax planning relative to publicly-held firms, and thus are believed to engage in greater tax planning.
Why do young firms pay less? Using confidential microdata from the US Census Bureau, we find lower earnings among workers at young firms. However, we argue that such measurement is likely subject to worker and firm selection. Exploiting the two-sided panel nature of the data to control for relevant dimensions of worker and firm heterogeneity, we uncover a positive and significant young-firm pay premium. Furthermore, we show that worker selection at firm birth is related to future firm dynamics, including survival and growth. We tie our empirical findings to a simple model of pay, employment, and dynamics of young firms.
This article investigates patent citations made to published patent applications. Although citations to patent publications are conceptually indistinguishable from citations to granted patents, they are omitted from all standard measures. We find that publication citations are a large and growing portion of patent citations, and that they differ statistically from citations to granted patents on several important dimensions. We conclude that omitting publication citations is likely to generate biased measures, and that standard measures of patent citations should be corrected. We release our computer code and corrections for future use.
We investigate the extent to which loan officers generate individual effects on the design and performance of syndicated loan deals. We construct a novel database containing the identities of 6,821 loan officers involved in structuring syndicated loan deals. This data allow us to exploit movement of loan officers across banks to disentangle loan officer effects from bank fixed effects and estimate loan officers’ influence on both lending terms and loan performance. We find that loan officers have a significant influence on loan terms and loan performance that is incremental to bank and borrower characteristics.
We examine how product market competition affects the disclosure of innovation. Theory posits that product market competition can cause firms to increase their disclosure of innovation to deter competitors. Consistent with this reasoning, we find that patent applicants in more competitive industries voluntarily accelerate their patent disclosures, which are credibly disclosed via the United States Patent and Trademark Office.
In the run up to the financial crisis, the essential functions financial intermediaries played seemed to become less important. Commercial and industrial loans, as well as residential mortgages, the quintessential banking products, were securitized and sold.
We study how an improvement in contracting institutions due to the 1999 U.S.-China bilateral agreement affects U.S. firms’ innovation. We show that U.S. firms operating in China decrease their process innovations—innovations that improve firms’ own production methods—following the agreement.
Mergers and acquisitions (M&As) are an important mechanism through which new technology is adopted by firms. We document patterns of labor reallocation and wage changes following M&As, consistent with the adoption of technology. Specifically, we show target establishments invest more in technology, become less routine task intensive, employ a greater share of high technology workers, and pay more unequal wages.