We find that Credit Rating Agencies (CRAs) see through transitory shocks to credit risk that stem from transitory shocks to equity prices, while market-based measures of credit risk do not. For a given stock return, CRAs are significantly less likely to downgrade firms with transitory shocks than those with permanent shocks. However, credit default swap spreads and model-implied default probabilities do not distinguish between such shocks.
A survey of family business owners conducted a number of years ago by John Ward, co-founder of The Family Business Consulting Group, found that lack of a shared vision for the family business and weak next-generation leadership were two of the top three threats to long-term family firm success. John’s finding was one of the inspirations for my own research on developing next-generation leadership talent in family businesses. In my study of several hundred family firms, it turned out that those two factors were highly related. A shared vision for the family enterprise was strongly predictive of the presence of effective next-generation family leaders.
While recent literature has depicted status as an intangible asset that is firm‐specific and mobile, we have a limited understanding of whether status confers advantage in a way similar to other intangible assets. This study examines the macro‐structural contingencies that influence the marginal value of firm status as firms expand to new markets. Building on the literatures on status and social approval assets, as well as globalization and international management, we hypothesize that two conditions influence how valuable home‐country status will be in a given host country: the interconnectedness of the home and host countries, and their relative position in the global network. We test our hypotheses in a study of 187 venture capital (VC)‐backed biotechnology ventures in 19 countries between 1990 and 2006.
We propose a novel method of estimating default probabilities using equity option data. The resulting default probabilities are highly correlated with estimates of default probabilities extracted from CDS spreads, which assume constant recovery rates. Additionally, the option implied default probabilities are higher in bad economic times and for firms with poorer credit ratings and financial positions.
Puerto Rico’s unique characteristics as a U.S. territory allow us to examine the channels through which (sub)sovereign default risk can have real effects on the macroeconomy. Post-2012, during the period of increased default probabilities, the cointegrating relationship between real activity in Puerto Rico and the U.S. mainland breaks down and Puerto Rico spirals into a significant decline. We exploit the cross-industry variation in default risk exposure to identify the impact of changes in default risk on employment. The evidence suggests that there are significantly higher employment growth declines in government demand and external finance dependent industries. An additional real effect of default anticipation is that heightened default risk Granger causes Puerto Rico’s austerity measures. An event study analysis using government bond yields and stock returns confirms that news of increased default risk increases the cost of capital for the Puerto Rican government and for publicly traded Puerto Rican firms.
The local levels of economies have felt the impact of technological change and globalization. These forces have triggered the need to understand the dynamic mechanisms that enable locales to respond to such changes. For example, the downsizing of traditional employers because of a major loss in market share due to new competitors, acquisition by global firms, or off-shoring of production or services was traditionally thought to be beyond the scope of powers of local policymakers, thinkers, and business leaders.
Mergers and acquisitions (M&As) are an important mechanism through which new technology is adopted by firms. We document patterns of labor reallocation and wage changes following M&As, consistent with the adoption of technology. Specifically, we show target establishments invest more in technology, become less routine task intensive, employ a greater share of high technology workers, and pay more unequal wages.
Consumers’ brand associations are essential to the development of effective marketing strategies. Understanding consumers’ brand associations enables firms to determine their brand’s positioning and informs new product development and marketing mix design. A rich and abundant source for consumers’ brand associations is user-generated-content (UGC).
How do cities attract mobile firms? The answer, frequently, involves beer. Dr. Maryann Feldman has recently published an editorial describing how cities are increasingly selling themselves on quality of life metrics, talent, and trendy amenities that appeal to young professionals. Responding to Amazon’s HQ2 contest, cities across the country listed breweries among their city’s assets while wooing the technology giant. The article is based on a paper that three of her students wrote under her guidance, and the inspirations for which evolved out of a seminar Dr. Feldman taught on science and technology policy.
Competition between firms to invent and patent an idea, or “patent racing,” has been much discussed in theory, but seldom analyzed empirically. This article introduces an empirical way to identify patent races, and provides the first broad-based view of them in the real world.
Prior literature suggests many benefits stemming from founders’ strong identification with their firms. We suggest, however, that there is also a potential dark side. We argue that founders can become overidentified with their organizations, making them more likely to engage in irresponsible behavior that protects the firm but harms others, as moral and societal norms are viewed as obstacles to fulfilling an organization’s goals.
Community banks are the central financial institution in many places. They have the capacity to alleviate credit constraints of small firms. This may increase economic resilience, delaying or mitigating the effects of the Great Recession. We estimate how the county-level banking access and community bank market share affect both the timing and duration of the Great Recession. Using the Cox Proportional Hazards Model, we find that communities with a higher community bank market share are either less likely to experience recession conditions, or experience these conditions later. Using the Heckman Selection model, we confirm these results, and show that communities with a higher community bank market share are less likely to experience recession conditions. This research provides the first link between local financial institutions, and economic resilience.
Angel investor tax credits are commonly used around the world to spur entrepreneurship. Exploiting the staggered implementation of these tax credits in 31 U.S. states, we find that while they increase angel investment, marginal investments flow to relatively low-growth firms.
Federal, state and local governments acted quickly to assist businesses during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, because the category of “small business” is defined so broadly, stimulus money did not always reach the intended recipients. The government’s definition of small business includes firms with fewer than 500 employees — which, taken together, represent a broad collection of different types of businesses with very different needs.
Financial markets reveal information which firm managers can utilize when making equity value-enhancing investment decisions. However, for firms with risky debt, such investments are not necessarily socially efficient. Despite this friction, we show that learning from prices improves investment efficiency.
We examine the evolution of the gender pay gap in finance, using administrative U.K. data over two decades. We show a persistently larger gender pay gap in finance relative to other sectors, which is predominantly explained by skilled male employees sorting relatively more into finance. The gender pay gap in finance is lower for flexible occupations, in firms providing childcare benefits, and in female-friendly environments. Over time, the difference in the gender pay gap between finance and non-finance sectors has steadily narrowed from 40% in 1997 to 23% in 2019, as more skilled women sort into finance.
The paper uses structured machine learning regressions for nowcasting with panel data consisting of series sampled at different frequencies. Motivated by the problem of predicting corporate earnings for a large cross-section of firms with macroeconomic, financial, and news time series sampled at different frequencies, we focus on the sparse-group LASSO regularization which can take advantage of the mixed-frequency time series panel data structures.
Greg Brown joined former NC Secretary of Commerce John Skvarla; Terry Keating, executive vice president of Accord Financial; and show host Chris William for an end-of-year, Carolinas-centric look at tax reform, the urban-rural divide, foreign trade, and economic development, among other topics. The show aired on PBS stations in North and South Carolina in December.
Kenan Institute Senior Faculty Fellow Maryann Feldman and Good Jobs First Executive Director Greg LeRoyco-authored an op-ed published in The Guardian on why American cities should stop trying to attract big tech and offer up alternative strategies to boost local economies.
Kenan Institute Executive Director Greg Brown, Director of Research Christian Lundblad and Senior Research Associate Philip Howard's research warns of the risks of investing in crowded hedge funds – particularly during periods of market distress. “The crowdedness of an equity position is an important ingredient for characterizing risk,” the trio wrote in their latest paper "Crowded Trades and Tail Risks."