Kenan Institute of Private Enterprise
Kenan-Flagler Business School

economic outlook

Kenan Institute Economic Briefing: Soft Landing or Softening Economy?

Kenan Institute Economic Briefing: Soft Landing or Softening Economy?

Aug 4, 2023 • Video

Have the chances of a recession arriving in the next year decreased? Institute Executive Director Greg Brown laid out the conflicting economic indicators around this question and offered his analysis of the Aug. 4 employment report, which showed 187,000 jobs added in July. He also answered questions on the yield curve’s performance and the potential effects of Fitch’s downgrade of the U.S. credit rating.
Business Uncertainty

When Uncertainty Becomes a Certainty

Feb 2, 2023 • Commentary

2022 was a tumultuous year: NASDAQ, a tech-heavy stock index, closed the year down more than 30%; inflation proved more stubborn than policymakers initially thought and reached 40-year highs; Russia invaded Ukraine, sending commodity prices even higher; and central banks cranked up rates in response, the Federal Reserve raising interest rates at an unprecedented pace in recent history from around zero to over 4%. As we entered 2023, the global economy stood “on a razor’s edge,” the World Bank warned in its latest projections. Add to that a divided Congress with razor-thin majorities, political wrangling over the debt ceiling, and increasingly frequent catastrophic weather events, and it leaves one wondering where we are all headed.
Kenan Institute Economic Briefing: Will the Fed Overshoot?

Kenan Institute Economic Briefing: Will the Fed Overshoot?

Sep 2, 2022 • Video

Kenan Institute Executive Director Greg Brown discussed the Federal Reserve’s next move after the Sept. 2 employment report showed slowing but still strong job growth. Brown predicted that the Fed, to protect its reputation as an inflation fighter, would more likely overshoot than come up short in using higher interest rates to tamp down rising prices. He also answered questions from the media on how the global nature of inflation limits the Fed’s effectiveness as well as what can be expected for local and North Carolina labor markets.
Washington Post: ‘It’s Been One Hit After Another for Small Businesses’

Washington Post: ‘It’s Been One Hit After Another for Small Businesses’

Aug 15, 2022 • News & Media

Small-business owners say they’re just beginning to recover from the sudden blow that hobbled many of them during the early 2020 pandemic restrictions. Now mixed economic messages have them wondering what to do next, according to a Washington Post story. “There is so much that’s up in the air, and uncertainty affects small businesses much more so than it does larger ones,” said institute Director of Research Paige Ouimet.
US Economy

Why a Shrinking Economy Won’t Make the Fed Blink

Jul 29, 2022 • Commentary

GDP, the broadest measure of economic output, contracted for the second straight quarter, stoking fears that the economy is already in a recession — and has been since the beginning of the year. But the guts of the GDP report coupled with continued strong job growth and decent consumer spending suggest that the expansion remains on track. While the official arbiters of recessions are likely to agree with me — they don’t look at GDP but rather measures like job creation — what really matters to households and businesses is whether their spending power or foot traffic is drying up.
US Economy

Confusion Reigns: Strong Jobs Report Amid Recession Talk

Jul 11, 2022 • News & Media

A surprisingly strong jobs report for June only adds to the difficulty of getting a read on the U.S. economy, writes Dan Barkin on the Business North Carolina site. He cites statistics offered by UNC Kenan-Flagler Professor Christian Lundblad in the institute’s July 8 economic briefing and notes Lundblad’s opinion that a “real” recession, rather than a technical recession, is more likely to arrive in early to mid-2023.
American-grocery-store-inflation

The Drop in Consumer Confidence Indexes Tells a Nuanced Story – Let’s Not Overreact to It

Jul 8, 2022 • Commentary

UNC Kenan-Flagler Business School Professor Camelia Kuhnen is an expert in corporate finance, behavioral finance and neuroeconomics, the application of neuroscience tools and methods to economic research. As many question whether a recession is on the way, she answers some questions about how the most notable consumer confidence surveys differ and whether Americans are prone to economic gloominess.
Kenan Institute Economic Briefing: Sorting Through Mixed Signals

Kenan Institute Economic Briefing: Sorting Through Mixed Signals

Jul 8, 2022 • Video

Kenan Institute Research Director Christian Lundblad navigated the cognitive dissonance provided by another strong jobs report when considered alongside more negative indicators during the institute’s latest economic briefing July 8. The virtual event took place at 9 a.m. after the release of the latest monthly employment numbers. Lundblad also answered questions from the audience, including limitations on the Federal Reserve in addressing core consumer price issues, the differences among regional labor markets, and the probability of an actual recession vs. a technical recession occurring this year.
gas pump

Decrease in Gasoline Prices Could Be a Sign of Recession Fears

Jul 6, 2022 • News & Media

Institute Chief Economist Gerald Cohen spoke to both WRAL-TV and WTVD-TV on July 5, saying the potential downside of a recent decrease in gasoline prices is that it may reflect concerns in the markets that the economy is going into recession. “Economic activity slows, gasoline demand slows,” Cohen said. “If [prices are] coming down because people think we’re in a recession, then that’s bad.”
The Federal Reserve Building In Washington DC, USA

Can the Fed Brake Inflation (Expectations) Without Breaking the Economy?

Jun 16, 2022 • Commentary

The Fed tried to show its inflation-fighting mettle by raising the federal funds rate, the short-term interest rate it directly controls, by 0.75 of a percentage point. This is the largest increase since 1994, though the funds rate remains at a quite low 1.625%, especially relative to the 8.6% inflation reading last week. The Fed seemed to be spooked by the inflation print — which, rather than declining as many forecasters (including myself) expected, rose to its highest level since 1981. More important, in my opinion, longer-term measures of consumer inflation expectations and uncertainty increased.
Inflation, Uncertainty Has Shoppers Doing What They Can to Save Money

Inflation, Uncertainty Has Shoppers Doing What They Can to Save Money

Jun 11, 2022 • News & Media

Higher prices for gas, groceries and nearly everything else are on consumers’ minds after a government report Friday showing that inflation is up 8.6% on a year-over-year basis, the largest jump since late 1981. Chief Economist Gerald Cohen tells WTVD-TV, “When people start saying, ‘I think inflation is going to continue to occur, that means that the Fed has to work harder and that it could end badly.”
Kenan Institute’s Economic Briefing Explores How Far the Fed Will Go

Kenan Institute’s Economic Briefing Explores How Far the Fed Will Go

Jun 3, 2022 • Video

The Kenan Institute of Private Enterprise’s new series of economic briefings returned June 3 following the release of the U.S. Department of Labor’s monthly employment report. In the 9 a.m. ET briefing, Executive Director Greg Brown provided insight on another relatively strong report and talked about how jobs numbers could help influence the Fed to either push past its expected target on interest rates or take a pause in its increases.
Cryptocurrency
May 30, 2026

Webinar: Not-So-Stable(coin) and the Future of Crypto

The hits just keep coming for the cryptocurrency market following last week’s collapse of TerraUSD. The stablecoin, created to maintain its value equal to the U.S. dollar, today is worth an estimated 11 cents – a drop in market value from nearly $19 billion to roughly $1.3 billion. How could this have happened, and what could it – along with the wider market selloff – mean for the future of crypto? We invite you to join us at 11 a.m. ET this Friday, May 20, for a discussion with key experts.
Gender Pay Gap

Has Inflation Peaked? The News Is (Mostly) Good

May 11, 2022 • Commentary

First, the good news. Given what we know about current economic conditions, it is likely that the consumer inflation rate has peaked in the U.S. for the current cycle. Recent inflation reports on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Implicit Price Deflator, which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure, show a jump to new 40-year highs in March but signs of moderation in coming months. For example, consumer goods with very large 12-month cost runups such as used cars and food away from home are starting to see prices moderate. Likewise, prices of important household goods like apparel, furnishings, prescription drugs and recreation commodities (think TVs and Pelotons) are flattening. Furthermore, some important energy prices such as crude oil and gasoline have stabilized in April after jumps in the first quarter. So, while inflation will surely remain elevated for some time, it is unlikely to get much worse.
Kenan Institute’s State of the Economy Press Briefing Makes Debut

Kenan Institute’s State of the Economy Press Briefing Makes Debut

May 6, 2022 • Video

The Kenan Institute of Private Enterprise launched its State of the Economy Press Briefing, a quick-response roundup of information and commentary following the U.S. Department of Labor’s monthly employment report, with a virtual presentation May 6. Areas for analysis included how the jobs numbers may affect GDP growth, inflation, and the Fed’s plans, with an eye toward what it all means for business.

In the 9 a.m. ET briefing, Chief Economist Gerald Cohen offered additional insights into the effects of COVID-19 on employment and the labor market’s continuing recovery. He also answered questions on the likelihood of a recession and the EU’s response to economic conditions.

 

Paid Sick Leave

Is This What It Looks Like When the Entire Economy Is Burned Out?

Apr 4, 2022 • Commentary

The latest report from the Department of Labor showed continued robust job growth. Employers added 431,000 jobs in March. The news of sustained job gains speaks to the strength of the U.S. economy. Moreover, the labor force participation rate inched up slightly to 62.4% in March, from 62.3% in February, indicating more Americans are reentering the workforce. We still have a long way to go to resolve the imbalance between job openings and unemployed people, however, and this means that current issues of worker burnout will also linger.
The Surprising Complexities of Measuring ESG

The Surprising Complexities of Measuring ESG

Mar 30, 2022 • Video

The Kenan Institute’s deep dive into stakeholder capitalism has exposed shortcomings in a key building block: ESG measurement. Our experts have explored the issue at length, proposing ways of refining these measures to produce structures that could meet the needs of multiple stakeholders while also working to design reporting free from political influence and agendas. As a next step, the Kenan Institute hosted a conversation featuring a business leader, investor and standard setter to discuss how we might turn these ideas into solutions to help integrate stakeholder capitalism principals into business and investment decisions.
Container Ship

The Mother of All Supply Chain Shocks

Mar 28, 2022 • Commentary

Concerns about further supply-chain troubles are on the rise. Just a few months ago the “temporary disruptions” stemming from covid were predicted to work themselves out in 2022. However, businesses are now faced with the possibility of disruptions much more severe than those experienced to date. These stem from two sources: interrupted supplies in essential raw materials and agricultural commodities resulting from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the potential for a rapid (and massive) spread of COVIC-19 in China resulting in suspensions to manufacturing operations there.
Help-Wanted-Workforce-Cohen

Carolina Across 100 – Where Are the Workers?

Mar 16, 2022 • News & Media

Businesses across the state have their Help Wanted signs up, and respondents to the Carolina Across 100 survey confirm that it’s a pressing issue: Nearly 80% of the total sample put employment and staffing concerns among the top three negative effects of COVID-19 on their organizations. Chief Economist Gerald Cohen writes that COVID has played its part in the hiring problems but that other economic and demographic factors are in play. Data provides a mixed picture of what might lie ahead.
An Investment Philosophy for a Less Globalized World

An Investment Philosophy for a Less Globalized World

Mar 13, 2022 • News & Media

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has disrupted the movement toward globalization that has benefited investors since the end of the Cold War. This development, combined with inflationary pressures not seen in three decades, should prompt individual and institutional investors to reconsider their approach to managing their money, Director of Research Christian Lundblad recently shared with the Raleigh News & Observer.
Up to the Minute Wage-Price Greg Brown

Up to the Minute: Wage-Price Spiral

Feb 28, 2022 • Video

For much of 2022 economic forecasters, including those at the Federal Reserve, assumed that higher inflation rates would be short-lived – shifting back toward the Fed’s 2% target as supply-chain bottlenecks were resolved and a pandemic-induced shift in demand for consumer goods swung back toward consumer services. Instead, recent inflation prints have set 40-year records and we are seeing more discussion about the possibility of a “wage-price” spiral. In this short video, Kenan Institute Executive Director Greg Brown examines the factors which can lead to a wage-price spiral – and assesses the risk of a spiral causing even higher and more persistent inflation in the U.S. over the next few years.
Biden’s Build Back Better: A Brighter Future for Black Families?

Biden’s Build Back Better: A Brighter Future for Black Families?

Jul 28, 2021 • Kenan Insight

While the COVID-19 pandemic was devastating for many, research shows its impact was not felt equally. Black Americans experienced disproportionate health and economic ramifications, which compounded the financial, social and psychological strain many felt pre-pandemic, and have contributed to growing inter-generational wealth disparities. In today’s Kenan Insight, our experts explore whether the multi-trillion dollar “Build Back Better” plan proposed by the Biden administration holds the potential to begin closing pervasive gaps in American society.
US Capital Building

U.S. Employment: Labor Shortage or Post-pandemic Labor Pains?

May 25, 2021 • Commentary

The current narrative around the U.S. labor market is a mixed bag. On the one hand, many companies are struggling to find enough workers to return to a semblance of normal operations. On the other, 8 million fewer Americans were employed in April 2021 as compared to February 2020. We asked three experts from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill — Christian Lundblad, Director of Research, Kenan Institute of Private Enterprise and Richard "Dick" Levin Distinguished Professor of Finance, Area Chair of Finance and Associate Dean of the Ph.D. program, Kenan-Flagler Business School; Luca Flabbi, Associate Professor of Economics; and Paige Ouimet, Professor of Finance, Kenan-Flagler Business School — to weigh in on the critical issues behind this dichotomy.
World Economy

The “Global-K” Recovery

Apr 6, 2021 • Commentary

The 2020 U.S. economic downturn fueled by the COVID-19 pandemic generated both big losers (such as restaurants and the hospitality sector) and big winners (such as high tech and online retail), leading economic commentators to call the recession “K-shaped.”  As the pandemic evolves in 2021, this K-shaped recovery will go global; though some countries, notably the U.S. and China, are securely tethered to the largest economic booster rocket ever built, a sizable swath of the world will continue to suffer weak growth.
US States

Mind the Pandemic Gap: How States Propose to Bridge the COVID-19 Revenue Shortfall

Jan 27, 2021 • Kenan Insight

As we approach the one-year mark of state-issued stay-at-home orders, the short- and long-term impact of the global COVID-19 pandemic on state coffers is still being assessed. With businesses forced to close and unemployment at near-record levels, state policymakers are scrambling to find ways to make up for lost tax revenue. In this Kenan Insight, we look at both the challenges and opportunities for balancing state budgets in light of this new economic reality.
Raleigh Skyline

COVID Ended a Decade-long Economic Expansion in North Carolina. Now What?

Jan 22, 2021 • Commentary

2020 brought an end to North Carolina’s decade-long economic expansion that began in 2010 after the Great Recession. It has now been a year since COVID-19 arrived on U.S. shores, and we can see some changes clearly, while others are just starting to emerge from the haze. It will likely be years before we fully grasp the myriad ways COVID-19 has affected the nation’s and the state’s economies. Now seems like a good time to take stock of the fallout from 2020, the trends we’re seeing a year into the crisis and where things are starting to turn around for North Carolina.
Office Space

Wrangling Herd Immunity for a Return to the Office

Jan 13, 2021 • Kenan Insight

The arrival of two approved COVID-19 vaccines provides a clear path to the end of the pandemic that held most of 2020 hostage. But a recent resurgence of the virus and skyrocketing rates of infection indicate that a full return to normalcy—including the pre-pandemic work environment— is still months in the future. In this Kenan Insight, we examine the relevant factors that will determine when and how we go back to the office.
Charting a Path Forward

Policy Implications of Election 2020: Charting a Path Forward

Dec 2, 2020 • Video

A follow-up to our pre-election coverage, this discussion explored the impact of the presidential and congressional race outcomes on U.S. business and the economy, trade and foreign relations, ongoing COVID-19 recovery efforts and more. The webinar featured Kenan Institute Director of Research Christian Lundblad, Political Quotient Advisors CEO and Kenan Institute Senior Fellow Mary Moore Hamrick, U.S. Chamber Center for Capital Markets Competitiveness Executive Vice President and Senior Advisor to the Senior Executive Vice President Tom Quaadman and Kenan Institute Executive Director Greg Brown as moderator.
Risk Assessment

Risky Business: Capital Allocation in the Time of COVID-19

Nov 11, 2020 • Kenan Insight

With COVID-19 cases on the rise, much uncertainty remains about how much more damage the pandemic will inflict on the U.S. economy, particularly on certain sectors and small businesses. What is clear, however, is that many businesses will continue to require infusions of capital to stay afloat, and that private sector capital providers will need to play a role in long-term recovery efforts. In this Kenan Insight, we explore how those providers will need to shift their approach to risk assessment in the post-COVID world, and what opportunities might be created for investors who can solve two outstanding issues.
Seven Forces Reshaping the Economy Risk Assessment by Capital Providers

Seven Forces Reshaping the Economy: Risk Assessment by Capital Providers

Nov 11, 2020 • Video

With COVID-19 cases on the rise, much uncertainty remains about how much more damage the pandemic will inflict on the U.S. economy, particularly on certain sectors and small businesses. What is clear, however, is that many businesses will continue to require infusions of capital to stay afloat, and that private sector capital providers will need to play a role in long-term recovery efforts. In this Kenan Insight, we explore how those providers will need to shift their approach to risk assessment in the post-COVID world, and what opportunities might be created for investors who can solve two outstanding issues.
Stuck in Phase 2.X?

Stuck in Phase 2.X?

Sep 10, 2020 • Commentary

September 13 will mark six months since U.S. President Donald Trump declared a national state of emergency in response to the COVID-19 a national pandemic.  And here in North Carolina, Governor Roy Cooper announced last week that the state will transition to “Phase 2.5,” with further easing of restrictions on certain places and types of activities including mass gatherings, playgrounds and gyms, but with other restrictions – such as those on bars and entertainment venues – remaining in place. It seems like a good time to take stock of where we’ve been, where we are now and what lies ahead.
Christian Lundblad WTVD ABC 11

Kenan Institute Director of Research Discusses Consumer Consternation

Aug 12, 2020 • News & Media

As states reopen amid the COVID-19 pandemic, experts are looking to consumer spending as an indicator of a return to normalcy.  But consumers need to both be safe and feel safe for nonessential activities and spending to resume.  Kenan Institute Director of Research and UNC Kenan-Flagler Business School Professor Christian Lundblad spoke with WABC 11 News about this phenomenon, and how the institute is tracking it through a new data dashboard.
COVID-19 PPE

Economic Danger Zone

Aug 3, 2020 • Commentary

In this week’s data commentary we’ll provide our usual review of health statistics, but primarily focus on what is an increasingly perilous juncture for both the U.S. and North Carolina economies.  Specifically, the failure of Congress to agree on a new stimulus plan is feeling more and more like a game of chicken, with U.S. households standing between the onrushing vehicles.  Hopefully, there is still time to slam the brakes on the rhetoric and approach the problem with solid economic logic.
Charlotte

A New Plateau?

Jul 27, 2020 • Commentary

The health and economic data from this past week brought both good and bad news about the state of affairs in North Carolina. Health data suggest the growth in new cases is slowing, that hospital capacity remains available and that we might be getting a better handle on identification.  While this is certainly encouraging in the battle against the pandemic, a similar levelling off in business activity does not bode as well for the economy. In this week’s commentary we seek to unpack some of the details in the data to understand what may be a new plateau.
State Local Government Budgets

Will COVID-19 Bring a Double-Dip Recession?

Jul 21, 2020 • Commentary

The recent spike in COVID-19 cases nationally, including a large bump in North Carolina, has us worried on a number of fronts—including its potential impact on the budding economic recovery. The $64,000 question has become, “Will we see a double-dip recession?” After the substantial rebound in consumer spending in May and early June, the most recent data suggests a stall in activity over the last month. Combined with an out-of-control worsening of the pandemic in several states, this trend is worrisome. Yet current conditions do not guarantee another plunge in the economy like the one we experienced in April. In this commentary, we look at the situation from our preferred three angles: health statistics, economic data, and individual behavior and welfare assessment.
CARES Act

Who CARES? Assessing the Impact of the CARES Act

Jul 15, 2020 • Kenan Insight

In response to the economic chaos caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, the federal government launched its largest fiscal stimulus in modern history—the CARES Act. But with $2 trillion invested in small businesses, unemployment benefits and direct cash payments to households, the CARES Act has still fallen short of its goals to spur consumer spending and restore employment. This Kenan Insight analyzes what went wrong, and offers suggestions for the anticipated next round of federal economic aid.
Press Briefing: State vs. Fed Government: Who’s Footing the COVID-19 Bill?
May 30, 2026

Press Briefing: State vs. Fed Government: Who’s Footing the COVID-19 Bill?

A panel of experts convened by UNC Kenan-Flagler Business School and its affiliated Kenan Institute of Private Enterprise will be offering a press briefing via webinar on the vital role state governments have played in response to COVID-19, the significant variance we’ve seen in responses state by state, and what’s next as governors and state lawmakers work with the federal government to fund relief while working to balance their own budgets. Join tomorrow, Tuesday, May 19, at 11 a.m. EDT.

Is There a Small Business Funding Gap?

Decoding the Worst Quarter in Economic History

May 13, 2020 • Kenan Insight

There is no doubt that the COVID-19 crisis has devastated the U.S. economy. But the particulars of this devastation are difficult to gauge, because unique aspects of the of the pandemic distort the data commonly used to assess such situations. In this Kenan Insight, we take a deep dive into the data to learn what it actually tells us about the economic impact of COVID-19, and suggest possibilities for a restart and recovery of the U.S. economy.
Can Ed Tech Save Universities?

Can Ed Tech Save Universities?

Apr 22, 2020 • Kenan Insight

Prior to the COVID-19 outbreak, institutions of higher education were under immense pressure to live up to their value propositions, with underlying tensions that have been developing for years posing an existential threat to their financial viability. As colleges and universities move classes and operations online in response to the pandemic, questions arise as to what such changes hold not just for now, but for the long-term success of higher education. Can ed tech provide a way forward? Find out in this week’s Kenan Insight.
Small Town Economy

The COVID-19 Pandemic and Small Business Employment

Apr 1, 2020 • Kenan Insight

The COVID-19 pandemic has put 18 million jobs at small businesses in the U.S. at risk – which could as much as quadruple the nation’s total unemployment rate. The effects of both the coronavirus and recent government relief programs were explored by a panel of Kenan Institute-convened experts during a press briefing held yesterday. The full recording of this briefing—along with a deeper-dive analysis on the specific implications of the financial downturn on small business employment by Kenan Institute Research Director Professor Christian Lundblad and UNC Kenan-Flagler Business School Professor Paige Ouimet—is available in this week’s Kenan Insight.
Press Briefing: UNC Kenan Institute Projects Small Business Layoffs to Quadruple Total U.S. Unemployment Rate
May 30, 2026

Press Briefing: UNC Kenan Institute Projects Small Business Layoffs to Quadruple Total U.S. Unemployment Rate

A panel of experts convened by UNC Kenan-Flagler Business School and its affiliated Kenan Institute of Private Enterprise will be offering a press briefing via webinar examining the massive implications the COVID-19 market disruption has, and will continue to have, on small business employment, including a projected 11.5 percentage point addition to the overall U.S. unemployment rate by small business layoffs. They will also examine the role relief legislation can and should play in mitigating the economic effects of the pandemic. Join tomorrow, Tuesday, March 31, at 11 a.m. EDT.
Finances

How Are We Going to Afford COVID-19?

Mar 24, 2020 • News & Media

The COVID-19 financial downturn will have short- and long-term effects on personal and consumer finance, as explored by a panel of Kenan Institute-convened experts during a press briefing held yesterday. The full recording of this briefing—along with a deeper-dive analysis on the specific implications of the downturn on personal retirement income by Kenan Institute Executive Director Greg Brown—is available in this week’s Kenan Insight.
Stock Market
May 30, 2026

Dean’s Speaker Series: Michael S. Piwowar

Join us for an afternoon with SEC Commissioner Michael S. Piwowar, who will share how the SEC is protecting investors, maintain the integrity of markets, and facilitate capital formation. Michael S. Piwowar was first appointed to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) by President Barack Obama and was sworn in on August 15, 2013. Dr. Piwowar was designated Acting Chairman of the Commission by President Donald Trump from January 23, 2017, to May 4, 2017.