Kenan Institute of Private Enterprise
Kenan-Flagler Business School

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Kenan Institute Economic Briefing: Soft Landing or Softening Economy?

Kenan Institute Economic Briefing: Soft Landing or Softening Economy?

Aug 4, 2023 • Video

Have the chances of a recession arriving in the next year decreased? Institute Executive Director Greg Brown laid out the conflicting economic indicators around this question and offered his analysis of the Aug. 4 employment report, which showed 187,000 jobs added in July. He also answered questions on the yield curve’s performance and the potential effects of Fitch’s downgrade of the U.S. credit rating.
Remote Work

Remote Work, High-Skill Migration and Our Changing Cities

Oct 14, 2022 • Commentary

COVID-19 and the subsequent rise in work-from-home policies by firms have changed the landscape of skilled labor in the United States. The Survey of Working Arrangements and Attitudes finds that 15% of employees are working from home full time, as of September 2022. This dramatic increase in remote work has led to an equally dramatic physical migration of workers across the U.S. Census data shows a sharp decline in populations of the largest U.S. cities and increases among midsize cities and smaller metro areas. For example, from 2020 to 2021, the counties of Manhattan (New York County) and San Francisco both saw a decline in their population of 25- to 54-year-olds by nearly 10%.
help-wanted-stock

Understaffed and Overwhelmed: In Some Industries, Workers Have Had Enough

Sep 16, 2022 • News & Media

A last-minute deal averted a rail strike last week, but it highlights how staffing shortages in the industry as well as in education, hospitality and healthcare are pushing workers to push back, writes The Washington Post. Jobs with long hours and rigid schedules that lack competitive pay and benefits are proving the most difficult to fill, Director of Research Paige Ouimet said. “Running your workers like this – asking them to do 20, 30 percent more because you’re short staffed – it’s very much a short-term strategy,” Ouimet said. “You’re going to keep losing people.”
Office Space

Long COVID and the Risk That U.S. Labor Markets Face

Sep 7, 2022 • Commentary

COVID-19 first caused chaos in our labor markets with the lockdowns of 2020, which sent unemployment rates soaring to all-time highs. It has continued to disrupt labor markets into 2022 as worries about health risks have kept workers at home, exasperating labor shortages. Looking forward, as we learn to live with COVID, we will also have to adapt to the effects of long COVID, when symptoms such as fatigue, difficulty breathing and “brain fog” appear after COVID. In this commentary, I attempt to assess the risk to our labor markets from long COVID.
Kenan Institute Economic Briefing: Will the Fed Overshoot?

Kenan Institute Economic Briefing: Will the Fed Overshoot?

Sep 2, 2022 • Video

Kenan Institute Executive Director Greg Brown discussed the Federal Reserve’s next move after the Sept. 2 employment report showed slowing but still strong job growth. Brown predicted that the Fed, to protect its reputation as an inflation fighter, would more likely overshoot than come up short in using higher interest rates to tamp down rising prices. He also answered questions from the media on how the global nature of inflation limits the Fed’s effectiveness as well as what can be expected for local and North Carolina labor markets.
Labor Shortage

Barron’s: Five Reasons People Are Starting To Work Again

Sep 2, 2022 • News & Media

Labor force participation rose in July and again in August, providing the Federal Reserve a victory in its efforts to boost participation rates closer to pre-pandemic levels, Barron’s reports. Rising prices may be sending some people back to the job market, Chief Economist Gerald Cohen told the publication. “There are help wanted signs everywhere and so you can get to the point where [people] are saying, look there are opportunities out there and let me go take advantage of them,” he said.
Washington Post: ‘It’s Been One Hit After Another for Small Businesses’

Washington Post: ‘It’s Been One Hit After Another for Small Businesses’

Aug 15, 2022 • News & Media

Small-business owners say they’re just beginning to recover from the sudden blow that hobbled many of them during the early 2020 pandemic restrictions. Now mixed economic messages have them wondering what to do next, according to a Washington Post story. “There is so much that’s up in the air, and uncertainty affects small businesses much more so than it does larger ones,” said institute Director of Research Paige Ouimet.
Map of North Carolina with a North Carolina Flag pinned into the map

Is It Good To Be Best? Analyzing What Drives State Business Rankings

Aug 11, 2022 • Commentary

Last month our home state of North Carolina was named “America’s Top State for Business” by CNBC (see the full ranking here). It wasn’t long after when some commentators pointed out that Oxfam had recently ranked N.C. as the worst state for workers. The extreme juxtaposition of rankings made me wonder if this was a coincidence or if there are systematic factors that make states good for businesses and bad for workers. Perhaps “right-to-work” laws, lax worker protection regulation or regional wage differences attract businesses looking to take advantage of areas with weak labor bargaining power. This in turn leads to business growth and thus job migration to states that are less desirable for individual workers. At the end of the day, economic planning should have the best interest of residents in mind when crafting business policy, so it seems worth unpacking what drives the rankings.
US Economy

Why a Shrinking Economy Won’t Make the Fed Blink

Jul 29, 2022 • Commentary

GDP, the broadest measure of economic output, contracted for the second straight quarter, stoking fears that the economy is already in a recession — and has been since the beginning of the year. But the guts of the GDP report coupled with continued strong job growth and decent consumer spending suggest that the expansion remains on track. While the official arbiters of recessions are likely to agree with me — they don’t look at GDP but rather measures like job creation — what really matters to households and businesses is whether their spending power or foot traffic is drying up.
money-wages

Owner: Paying More Dough Keeps Pizza Shop Staffed

Jul 18, 2022 • News & Media

A new Raleigh pizzeria is among the area restaurants paying employees higher wages, and the owner told WTVD-TV that bigger paychecks are helping him hire and retain workers. Institute Chief Economist Gerald Cohen said he thinks bar and restaurant workers have long been underpaid and called putting more money in their pockets beneficial to society. “As long as you don't have the inflationary spiral, this could be a really positive outcome. It just means it might cost people more to go to a restaurant,” Cohen said.
Gender Pay Gap

A Clear-Eyed Look at Salary Transparency Laws

Jul 13, 2022 • Kenan Insight

Seventeen states have enacted salary transparency laws to combat pay gaps historically experienced by people of color and women, but the laws take different forms and have produced varying results. How does requiring companies to provide summary salary statistics compare with, for example, preventing companies from asking applicants about their previous salaries? Can such laws actually work against employees? Two experts address these questions and more in this week’s Kenan Insight.
US Economy

Confusion Reigns: Strong Jobs Report Amid Recession Talk

Jul 11, 2022 • News & Media

A surprisingly strong jobs report for June only adds to the difficulty of getting a read on the U.S. economy, writes Dan Barkin on the Business North Carolina site. He cites statistics offered by UNC Kenan-Flagler Professor Christian Lundblad in the institute’s July 8 economic briefing and notes Lundblad’s opinion that a “real” recession, rather than a technical recession, is more likely to arrive in early to mid-2023.
Kenan Institute Economic Briefing: Sorting Through Mixed Signals

Kenan Institute Economic Briefing: Sorting Through Mixed Signals

Jul 8, 2022 • Video

Kenan Institute Research Director Christian Lundblad navigated the cognitive dissonance provided by another strong jobs report when considered alongside more negative indicators during the institute’s latest economic briefing July 8. The virtual event took place at 9 a.m. after the release of the latest monthly employment numbers. Lundblad also answered questions from the audience, including limitations on the Federal Reserve in addressing core consumer price issues, the differences among regional labor markets, and the probability of an actual recession vs. a technical recession occurring this year.
Should Companies Buy Into Employee Ownership?

Should Companies Buy Into Employee Ownership?

Jun 21, 2022 • Commentary

Pete Stavros of KKR & Co. founded Ownership Works, a new initiative backed by 19 private equity firms, with the objective of reducing income inequality by increasing employee share ownership. The group has prominent backers and a lofty goal of creating $20 billion in wealth in 10 years. As a researcher who has worked on employee share ownership and the benefits it can create, I was encouraged by the news. But while I broadly support employee ownership, such initiatives also can raise red flags because of the risk they impose on employees. As such, it is worthwhile to think carefully through what we know and don’t know about such programs.
Kenan Institute’s Economic Briefing Explores How Far the Fed Will Go

Kenan Institute’s Economic Briefing Explores How Far the Fed Will Go

Jun 3, 2022 • Video

The Kenan Institute of Private Enterprise’s new series of economic briefings returned June 3 following the release of the U.S. Department of Labor’s monthly employment report. In the 9 a.m. ET briefing, Executive Director Greg Brown provided insight on another relatively strong report and talked about how jobs numbers could help influence the Fed to either push past its expected target on interest rates or take a pause in its increases.
Office Space Workers

Should We Expect the U.S. Labor Force to Grow Dramatically?

May 6, 2022 • Commentary

Much has been made about the labor force participation rate, or the percentage of Americans over 16 who are working or actively looking for work — and for good cause, given the number of unfilled vacancies at U.S. firms. If fewer Americans are working, it is going to be harder for firms to staff all of their openings. Currently, 62.2% of adult Americans are working or looking for work. This compares with a historical average of 63.9% in 2019. With 259 million adult Americans, this 1.7 percentage point decrease in the labor force participation rate translates to a missing 4.4 million workers. And the narrative to date has primarily focused on how many Americans made changes following the COVID-19 pandemic (in response to lockdowns, layoffs, health concerns or care responsibilities) and the sizable fraction of these Americans who are still sitting on the sidelines. Given the steady drumbeat of news about how firms are unable to fill all their positions, there is much interest in how and when we expect these workers to return to the labor force. So, when can we expect them to join the labor pool?
Kenan Institute’s State of the Economy Press Briefing Makes Debut

Kenan Institute’s State of the Economy Press Briefing Makes Debut

May 6, 2022 • Video

The Kenan Institute of Private Enterprise launched its State of the Economy Press Briefing, a quick-response roundup of information and commentary following the U.S. Department of Labor’s monthly employment report, with a virtual presentation May 6. Areas for analysis included how the jobs numbers may affect GDP growth, inflation, and the Fed’s plans, with an eye toward what it all means for business.

In the 9 a.m. ET briefing, Chief Economist Gerald Cohen offered additional insights into the effects of COVID-19 on employment and the labor market’s continuing recovery. He also answered questions on the likelihood of a recession and the EU’s response to economic conditions.

 

Paid Sick Leave

Is This What It Looks Like When the Entire Economy Is Burned Out?

Apr 4, 2022 • Commentary

The latest report from the Department of Labor showed continued robust job growth. Employers added 431,000 jobs in March. The news of sustained job gains speaks to the strength of the U.S. economy. Moreover, the labor force participation rate inched up slightly to 62.4% in March, from 62.3% in February, indicating more Americans are reentering the workforce. We still have a long way to go to resolve the imbalance between job openings and unemployed people, however, and this means that current issues of worker burnout will also linger.
Paid Sick Leave

Looking to increase employment? Mandating paid sick leave could help.

Dec 8, 2021 • Kenan Insight

COVID-19 brought heightened focus to paid sick leave policies – a benefit to which roughly 25% of civilian workers don’t have access in the U.S. After sick leave mandates were temporarily implemented during the pandemic, UNC Kenan-Flagler Business School researchers found employment increased, particularly among low-skilled workers and in industries that previously had little access to paid sick leave. In this week's Kenan Insight, our experts explore possible drivers behind this finding as well as potential policy and business implications.
Gender Pay Gap

Could Policies Aiming to Close the Gender Pay Gap be Lowering Wages for All?

Sep 29, 2021 • Kenan Insight

While the gender pay gap has received significant attention in recent years, little progress has been made to close it; in fact, in 2019, women still earned only 82 cents for every dollar received by their male counterparts for equal work. Policymakers in recent years have developed creative solutions aiming to close the gap, including bans prohibiting employers from asking for a job applicant’s salary history. However, in this week’s Kenan Insight, new research from our experts examines whether such well-intentioned bans are inadvertently lowering wages for all employees.
Biden’s Build Back Better: A Brighter Future for Black Families?

Biden’s Build Back Better: A Brighter Future for Black Families?

Jul 28, 2021 • Kenan Insight

While the COVID-19 pandemic was devastating for many, research shows its impact was not felt equally. Black Americans experienced disproportionate health and economic ramifications, which compounded the financial, social and psychological strain many felt pre-pandemic, and have contributed to growing inter-generational wealth disparities. In today’s Kenan Insight, our experts explore whether the multi-trillion dollar “Build Back Better” plan proposed by the Biden administration holds the potential to begin closing pervasive gaps in American society.
Main Street Venture Capital

Venture-backed vs. Main Street: A Widening Business Gap

Jul 21, 2021 • Kenan Insight

The COVID-19 pandemic increased economic inequities in a number of ways, including in access to external capital – and while 2020 marked a break-out year for venture-backed firms, the pandemic hit many main street businesses hard. In this Kenan Insight, we explore the forces driving the haves and have-nots in this new economic climate, as well as actionable policy solutions as government support programs wind down.
Is There a Small Business Funding Gap?

Is Now the Time to Raise Minimum Wage?

Jun 23, 2021 • Kenan Insight

As the U.S. economy begins to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic and businesses grapple with ongoing labor shortages, the debate around increasing the federal minimum wage – which hasn’t budged in over a decade – has returned to the fore. In this Kenan Insight, we examine whether now is the right time to raise the standard minimum, why these benefits may come at a cost, and what approach might work best given the inevitable tradeoffs.
US Capital Building

U.S. Employment: Labor Shortage or Post-pandemic Labor Pains?

May 25, 2021 • Commentary

The current narrative around the U.S. labor market is a mixed bag. On the one hand, many companies are struggling to find enough workers to return to a semblance of normal operations. On the other, 8 million fewer Americans were employed in April 2021 as compared to February 2020. We asked three experts from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill — Christian Lundblad, Director of Research, Kenan Institute of Private Enterprise and Richard "Dick" Levin Distinguished Professor of Finance, Area Chair of Finance and Associate Dean of the Ph.D. program, Kenan-Flagler Business School; Luca Flabbi, Associate Professor of Economics; and Paige Ouimet, Professor of Finance, Kenan-Flagler Business School — to weigh in on the critical issues behind this dichotomy.
Fixing the Leaky Gender Equality Pipeline

Fixing the Leaky Gender Equality Pipeline

May 12, 2021 • Kenan Insight

Much has been written about the disproportionate number of women who have suffered pandemic-related job losses during COVID-19, but a related consequence has not been as well explored: the serious disruption of women’s careers, particularly in fields in which “path dependence” matters for success. In this Kenan Insight, we examine this more subtle asymmetry in the pandemic’s impact as indicative of far broader issues for women’s advancement in the workplace.
Office Space

Wrangling Herd Immunity for a Return to the Office

Jan 13, 2021 • Kenan Insight

The arrival of two approved COVID-19 vaccines provides a clear path to the end of the pandemic that held most of 2020 hostage. But a recent resurgence of the virus and skyrocketing rates of infection indicate that a full return to normalcy—including the pre-pandemic work environment— is still months in the future. In this Kenan Insight, we examine the relevant factors that will determine when and how we go back to the office.
Anti-immigrant Policies Will Hurt America’s COVID-19 Recovery

Anti-immigrant Policies Will Hurt America’s COVID-19 Recovery

Sep 16, 2020 • Kenan Insight

U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration has recently ramped up efforts to keep immigrants from entering the country and force out some who are already here – arguing these to be necessary measures to contain the spread of COVID-19 and protect American jobs. However, in this Kenan Insight, we summarize why these policies risk having exactly the opposite effect, harming the future health, social well-being and economic viability of our nation.

Congress

The Long-term Benefits of Short-time Compensation

Jun 24, 2020 • Kenan Insight

Unemployment insurance has been a lifeline for millions of Americans who have found themselves out of work in the wake of the economic shutdown triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic. But with federal, state and local government coffers strained, the time has come for short-time compensation (STC) and partial unemployment insurance programs to receive a closer look. In this Kenan Insight, we explore how these little-known initiatives can benefit both employees and employers and provide relief to an ailing U.S. economy.
Is There a Small Business Funding Gap?

Decoding the Worst Quarter in Economic History

May 13, 2020 • Kenan Insight

There is no doubt that the COVID-19 crisis has devastated the U.S. economy. But the particulars of this devastation are difficult to gauge, because unique aspects of the of the pandemic distort the data commonly used to assess such situations. In this Kenan Insight, we take a deep dive into the data to learn what it actually tells us about the economic impact of COVID-19, and suggest possibilities for a restart and recovery of the U.S. economy.
Small Town Economy

The COVID-19 Pandemic and Small Business Employment

Apr 1, 2020 • Kenan Insight

The COVID-19 pandemic has put 18 million jobs at small businesses in the U.S. at risk – which could as much as quadruple the nation’s total unemployment rate. The effects of both the coronavirus and recent government relief programs were explored by a panel of Kenan Institute-convened experts during a press briefing held yesterday. The full recording of this briefing—along with a deeper-dive analysis on the specific implications of the financial downturn on small business employment by Kenan Institute Research Director Professor Christian Lundblad and UNC Kenan-Flagler Business School Professor Paige Ouimet—is available in this week’s Kenan Insight.