The SVB collapse offers many lessons, but they are more about properly hedging against interest rate risk and the importance of timely intervention by regulators than the current state of the economy.

For some years now, environmental, social and governance investing has stormed the asset management industry with explosive growth. Tighter and increased oversight may finally bring it back down to earth.

A UNC Kenan-Flagler professor doesn’t foresee long-term effects from the failure of Silicon Valley Bank, given that other banks and financing companies can step in to replace SVB as an issuer of venture debt.

It is probably not a mystery to even the most casual observer of political affairs why the historic climate, health care and tax bill signed earlier this month was dubbed the Inflation Reduction Act. Inflation is high and causing real problems for many households, and so if only Congress could legislate it away by enacting … This is not to say that the package does not deserve any enthusiasm; it is an impressive legislative feat, making significant, though imperfect, advances on health care and climate change. On the other hand, the effect it will have on inflation, its raison d’être in name, will be modest at best and occur only over time.

The spread between 10-year and 3-month Treasuries – my favorite economic indicator – remains strongly in positive territory, suggesting a recession is not in the cards soon. This indicator has predicted all recessions since the mid-1960s, with a lead time of roughly one year, though the timing is inexact. The 10-year/2-year spread, which briefly inverted recently, is less reliable.

Inflation hit a 40-year high of 7.8% in February. We estimate energy prices will raise inflation by another percentage point in March. If sustained, the runup in gas prices will take a $100 billion-sized bite out of households’ wallets, weighing on consumer spending – and ultimately, inflation.

The jumps in the inflation rate over the last few months have been larger and longer-lasting than expected.  For much of 2022 economic forecasters, including those at the Federal Reserve, assumed that higher inflation rates would be short-lived—or “transitory” using the preferred jargon of the day. Inflation was expected to start shifting back towards the Fed’s 2% target as supply-chain bottlenecks were resolved and a pandemic-induced shift in demand for consumer goods swung back toward consumer services.  Instead, recent inflation prints have set 40-year records and we are seeing more discussion about the possibility of a “wage-price” spiral.