Congressional disputes over discretionary spending escalate, threatening government shutdown. Join Chief Economist Gerald Cohen in a virtual press briefing at 9 a.m. EDT this Friday, Oct. 6 to discuss long-term budget risks.
Join us for the Kenan Institute’s monthly virtual press briefing at 9 a.m. EDT this Friday, July 7, as institute Chief Economist Gerald Cohen offers his insights on the labor market and the decision facing the Federal Reserve.
The SVB collapse offers many lessons, but they are more about properly hedging against interest rate risk and the importance of timely intervention by regulators than the current state of the economy.
A UNC Kenan-Flagler professor doesn’t foresee long-term effects from the failure of Silicon Valley Bank, given that other banks and financing companies can step in to replace SVB as an issuer of venture debt.
For some years now, environmental, social and governance investing has stormed the asset management industry with explosive growth. Tighter and increased oversight may finally bring it back down to earth.
Join us for the Kenan Institute’s virtual press briefing at 9 a.m. EST this Friday, Feb. 3, as we provide instant analysis following the latest employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Institute Chief Economist Gerald Cohen will offer his insights and answer questions from the audience.
As Congress refused to raise the debt ceiling and the U.S. government moved closer to its first default, Spectrum News spoke to institute Chief Economist Gerald Cohen about the message being sent to the rest of the world.
Join us for the Kenan Institute’s virtual press briefing at 9 a.m. EST this Friday, Jan. 6, as we provide instant analysis following the latest employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Institute Chief Economist Gerald Cohen will offer his insights and answer questions from the audience.
Join us for the Kenan Institute’s virtual press briefing at 9 a.m. EST this Friday, Dec. 2, as we sort it all out and provide instant analysis following the latest employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Institute Chief Economist Gerald Cohen will offer his insights and answer questions from the audience.
Employment growth has remained exceptionally strong this year, and September is expected to be another healthy month. Join us for the Kenan Institute’s virtual press briefing at 9 a.m. EDT this Friday, Oct. 7, as we discuss the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ fresh employment report and how it may affect the Federal Reserve’s aggressive reaction to inflation.
It is probably not a mystery to even the most casual observer of political affairs why the historic climate, health care and tax bill signed earlier this month was dubbed the Inflation Reduction Act. Inflation is high and causing real problems for many households, and so if only Congress could legislate it away by enacting … This is not to say that the package does not deserve any enthusiasm; it is an impressive legislative feat, making significant, though imperfect, advances on health care and climate change. On the other hand, the effect it will have on inflation, its raison d’être in name, will be modest at best and occur only over time.
The spread between 10-year and 3-month Treasuries – my favorite economic indicator – remains strongly in positive territory, suggesting a recession is not in the cards soon. This indicator has predicted all recessions since the mid-1960s, with a lead time of roughly one year, though the timing is inexact. The 10-year/2-year spread, which briefly inverted recently, is less reliable.
Inflation hit a 40-year high of 7.8% in February. We estimate energy prices will raise inflation by another percentage point in March. If sustained, the runup in gas prices will take a $100 billion-sized bite out of households’ wallets, weighing on consumer spending – and ultimately, inflation.
The jumps in the inflation rate over the last few months have been larger and longer-lasting than expected. For much of 2022 economic forecasters, including those at the Federal Reserve, assumed that higher inflation rates would be short-lived—or “transitory” using the preferred jargon of the day. Inflation was expected to start shifting back towards the Fed’s 2% target as supply-chain bottlenecks were resolved and a pandemic-induced shift in demand for consumer goods swung back toward consumer services. Instead, recent inflation prints have set 40-year records and we are seeing more discussion about the possibility of a “wage-price” spiral.
As part of President Joe Biden’s efforts to refocus the Federal Reserve Board, the Senate conducted confirmation hearings for several nominees this past week. While these hearings traditionally raise spirited exchanges about the nominees’ views on monetary policy and bank supervision, a new and more controversial topic involves the extent to which the Federal Reserve should internalize climate risks into its purview. Before wading into central bank wonkishness, it is important to make clear that climate change represents a serious risk to not only the U.S. economy but to humanity itself. Nevertheless, we need to be very deliberate in the assessment of the available policy tools, with an eye to where unintended consequences may reside.
Inflation hit its highest level in almost forty-years, with overall prices up 7% in 2021. Is this a transitory increase as a result of COVID-driven demand and supply shortages, with inflation likely to decelerate to around 2% over the next year? Or, is inflation the result of a meaningfully overheated economy and likely to remain meaningfully higher than the Fed’s 2% target precipitating changes in business behavior and an aggressive policy response?
As we begin the new year, we wanted to highlight five topics, beyond the impact of COVID-19 and related uncertainties, that we believe businesspeople and policy makers will be grappling with in 2022. Throughout the year, we will focus our efforts to provide solutions-focused analysis on these topics as well as a host of others.