Abstract

We show that equity volatility serves as a determinant of future Treasury term-structure volatility over the recent October 1997 to June 2013 period. We find that equity volatility contains incrementally reliable information for the subsequent volatility of: (1) 10-year and 30-year bond futures returns, (2) the term-structure’s level, and (3) the term-structure’s slope. We present additional evidence that suggests a flight-to-quality/flight-from-quality pricing avenue is a likely contributor to the volatility linkages, where time-varying economic uncertainty can generate both a large positive serial correlation in stock volatility and a time-variation in the precautionary savings motive and diversification benefits of holding bonds.

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• Keyword(s):
• finance 267
• investments 84
• risk management 54

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