Up Next

ki-logo-white
Market-Based Solutions to Vital Economic Issues

SEARCH

ki-logo-white
Market-Based Solutions to Vital Economic Issues
Research
Nov 14, 2014

Investor Information, Long-Run Risk, and the Term Structure of Equity

Abstract

We study the role of information in asset pricing models with long-run cash flow risk. When investors can distinguish short- from long-run consumption risks (full information), the model generates a sizable equity risk premium only if the equity term structure slopes up, contrary to the data. In general, the short- and long-run components are unidentified. We propose a sparsity-based bounded rationality model of long-run risk that is both parsimonious and fully identified from historical data. In contrast to full information, the model generates a sizable market risk premium simultaneously with a downward sloping equity term structure, as in the data.

Note: Research papers posted on SSRN, including any findings, may differ from the final version chosen for publication in academic journals.


View Working Paper View Publication on UNC Library View Publication on Journal Site

You may also be interested in: