Up Next

ki-logo-white
Market-Based Solutions to Vital Economic Issues

SEARCH

ki-logo-white
Market-Based Solutions to Vital Economic Issues
Research
Jan 29, 2018

The Leading Premium

Abstract

In this paper, we compute conditional measures of lead-lag relationships between GDP growth and industry-level cash-flow growth in the US. Our results show that firms in leading industries pay an average annualized return 4% higher than that of firms in lagging industries. The difference in the returns of leading and lagging firms is priced in the cross section of equity returns, even after we control for a large number of risk factors. This finding can be rationalized in a model in which (a) agents price growth news shocks, and (b) leading industries provide valuable resolution of uncertainty about the growth prospects of lagging industries.

Note: Research papers posted on SSRN, including any findings, may differ from the final version chosen for publication in academic journals.


View Working Paper

You may also be interested in: