This report catalogs work by the Kenan Institute of Private Enterprise, in conjunction with the North Carolina CEO Leadership Forum, to distill insights from top academic researchers, business leaders and policy experts on how the economy is changing and what this means for the future of North Carolina. We describe seven forces currently reshaping the U.S. (and in some cases, global) economy.
The 2021 report explores the following: Initially, we explore the state of startups, small businesses and investments after a year – and global pandemic – have passed. Then we dive into one of the hottest areas today: health innovation. We highlight trends related to COVID-19, as well as other relevant topics, such as how AI and machine learning are impacting innovations in health. After that deep dive, we zoom out to explore broader trends related to investment structures, the impact of economic recovery funds distributed by the government, and other capital formation specific to entrepreneurs and small businesses.
Federal, state and local governments acted quickly to assist businesses during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, because the category of “small business” is defined so broadly, stimulus money did not always reach the intended recipients. The government’s definition of small business includes firms with fewer than 500 employees — which, taken together, represent a broad collection of different types of businesses with very different needs.
In financial markets, forward contracts reflect market perception of future price dynamics. Nontransparent markets, like commercial real estate investments, lack such tools. We use a panel of NYC office leases between 2005 and 2016 to estimate a dynamic term structure of forward lease rates (rental revenues), which reflects changing expectations by tenants and landlords about future rental contract conditions.
Financial markets reveal information which firm managers can utilize when making equity value-enhancing investment decisions. However, for firms with risky debt, such investments are not necessarily socially efficient. Despite this friction, we show that learning from prices improves investment efficiency.
We study the relation between trade credit, asset prices, and production-network linkages. Empirically, firms extending more trade credit earn 7.6% p.a. lower risk premiums and maintain longer relationships with customers.
As a magnet for both population and employment growth, North Carolina has a propitious opportunity to create an inclusive and equitable entrepreneurial and small business ecosystem to support the state’s newfound prosperity.
Hurricane Ian destroyed property and disrupted livelihoods in some of Florida’s largest and most rapidly growing coastal and inland counties.
In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, two large infrastructure-related bills have been enacted. The Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA), signed into law in November 2021, provides funding for a wide range of activities including roads, rail, transit, broadband, water and electrical infrastructure.
Productivity is the single most important determinant of a society’s standard of living. But how can you gauge it, and why does it matter? In this second report from the American Growth Project, we examine the productivity levels of the 50 largest microeconomies in the United States along with how those productivity levels have shifted during the last 15 years.
To date, our work on the American Growth Project has focused on the United States’ most populous urban areas. Our previous analyses of growth and productivity in the 50 largest Extended Metropolitan Areas (EMAs) have served to illustrate the tremendous amount of economic diversity to be found within the United States, revealing stark variations in economic trends, major industries and migration patterns in the country’s largest cities. We turn now to the task of measuring and analyzing economic activity in the next largest set of EMAs: the top 100 midsize cities.
In kicking off the new year, we at the Kenan Institute want to highlight five topics we anticipate will be top of mind for business leaders and policymakers during the 12 months ahead. Although some of these challenges – such as the recession we expect – can be painful, they also present opportunities. To help you navigate this rapidly evolving economic landscape, the Kenan Institute will work to provide solutions-focused analysis on the following as well as related issues throughout 2023.
As we move into 2023, the state of the economy remains highly uncertain following a volatile year that included both strong job growth and persistent inflation. Unfortunately, our economic models don’t bear particularly glad tidings for the new year, as we expect the U.S. economy will enter a recession in the second half of 2023 or early 2024. What is more, the economic pain caused by this downturn will be felt unevenly across the country: Our work in the American Growth Project has revealed significant divergence across regional economies in the United States that is too often left out of analysis focusing on national statistics alone.
North Carolina’s phenomenal migration-driven population growth masks a troubling trend: high rates of death and dying prematurely which, left unchecked, can potentially derail the state’s economic growth and prosperity in the years ahead. On average, 246 North Carolinians died each day during the 2010s, increasing to 317 daily between April 1, 2020 and July 1, 2022. COVID-19 and the substance abuse crisis have played a major role in premature deaths of prime working age citizens of the state. Both people-based and place-based strategies and interventions are urgently needed to address the state’s death crisis.
We reassess whether and to what degree the hiring, development, and promotion decisions of S&P 500 companies has led to misrepresentation of and bias against their minority executives. Instead of the US population benchmark that has conventionally been used to measure misrepresentation, and from such misrepresentation attribute the presence and magnitude of racial bias and discrimination, we measure misrepresentation in US executives using the benchmark of the racial/ethnic densities (RAEDs) of their college cohort peers. Our key result is that the differences between US executive RAEDs and the RAEDs of their college peers are far smaller than those found using the US population, typically by an order of magnitude or more.
We describe an experimental curriculum innovation that creates a safe space for students to engage in courageous conversations—to openly share diverse thoughts and opinions as well as vigorously debate politically charged issues of critical business importance.
This paper explores the ups and downs of innovation and productivity growth in the US economy and potential connections to the ups and downs of business dynamism and entrepreneurship over the last few decades.
This work examines the effects on worker psychological well-being and productivity of highly publicized negative identity-related societal events, such as the 2020 murder of George Floyd, mass shootings like the 2016 Pulse nightclub shooting that targeted LGBTQ+ individuals, and the 2021 Atlanta area Spa shootings that targeted individuals of Asian descent.
The advent of artificial intelligence (AI) tools necessitates the development of human skills that allow workers to use these new technologies to create value that AI tools cannot on their own.
Pay transparency policies are increasingly popular among governments in the United States and around the world.