We examine the relation between high frequency quotation and the behavior of stock prices between 2009 and 2011 for the full cross section of securities in the US. On average, higher quotation activity is associated with price series that more closely resemble a random walk, and significantly lower cost of trading.
Much of the recent empirical IO research has been conducted in the context of relatively mature, stable (often consumer packaged goods) markets. In these markets, consumer preferences and competitive interaction are often characterized by relatively stable patterns over time.
We examine the economic determinants of short-sale supply, and its consequences for future stock returns. Lendable supply increases with expected borrowing costs and decreases with financial statement constructs that indicate overvaluation. Although rising loan fees help ease supply constraints, we find shares are still least available when they are most attractive to short sellers. Using a number of firm characteristics, we derive useful instruments for real-time loan supply and demand conditions in the lending market. Further, we show that (1) when lendable supply is binding (non-binding), short-sale supply (demand) is the main predictor of future stock returns, (2) abnormal returns to the short-side of nine well-known market anomalies are attributable solely to "special" stocks, and (3) loan fees significantly reduce the profitability of the short side and several of these anomalies cease to be profitable. Overall our evidence highlights the central role played by the supply of lendable shares in equity price formation and returns prediction.
We produce novel empirical evidence on the relevance of output volatility (vol) shocks for both currency and international quantity dynamics.
This paper studies fiscal policy design in an economy in which (i) the representative household has recursive preferences, and (ii) growth is endogenously sustained through innovations whose market value depends on the tax system.
A risk-averse agent can sell claims to an asset of uncertain value to investors who have private information. When investors can choose how much information to acquire, the agent optimally issues information-sensitive securities in each market (e.g., debt and equity).
By 2012, all European Union countries began requiring the disclosure of large short positions. This regime change reduced short interest, bid-ask spreads, and the informativeness of prices. After specific disclosures, short-run abnormal returns are insignificantly negative, but 90-day cumulative abnormal returns are –5.23%.
Building on Miller's (1977) short sales constraints insight, we construct a model showing that investors should disagree less about the valuation of a conglomerate than about the valuations of its individual divisions. Disagreement, combined with short sales constraints, increases asset prices and thereby implies a conglomerate discount.
Does macroeconomic uncertainty increase or decrease aggregate growth and asset prices? To address this question, we decompose aggregate uncertainty into ‘good’ and ‘bad’ volatility components, associated with positive and negative innovations to macroeconomic growth.
In a roundtable discussion, several executives discussed today's corporate income tax and the fundamental assertions on which it is based and how political factors might be overcome to drive effective reform. PwC principal Andrew Lyon said an increase in the corporate tax rate appeals to many US voters who believe that corporations are not paying their fair share of taxes and are worried about widening income inequality.
We examine the global equity supply chains of U.S. multinationals to explore how tax and nontax country characteristics affect whether firms use foreign holding companies and where they locate them. We find that U.S. multinationals supply equity from headquarters to their foreign operating companies through foreign holding companies located in countries that lightly tax equity distributions.
This paper investigates changes in firm spending following changes in shareholder taxes. We show that firms with less elastic demand for equity capital will expand operations less than other firms following shareholder tax cuts. Since financial constraint is a factor that diminishes a firms demand elasticity for capital, we predict that financially constrained firms expand less than other companies following shareholder tax reductions.
We analyze why firms use non-intermediated short-term debt by studying the commercial paper (CP) market. Using a comprehensive database of CP issuers and issuance activity, we show that firms use CP to provide start-up financing for capital investment.
We present a novel source of disagreement grounded in decision theory: ambiguity aversion. We show that ambiguity aversion generates endogenous disagreement between a firm's insider and outside shareholders, creating a new rationale for corporate governance systems.
In diverse industries, from grocery retailing to health care, retailers join buying groups to achieve better terms with suppliers. The authors track the buying group membership of Europe's largest grocery retailers over a 15-year period and evaluate why some buying groups are better than others in increasing retailer performance and why different members belonging to the same group do not always benefit equally from their membership.
Volatility component models have received considerable attention recently, not only because of their ability to capture complex dynamics via a parsimonious parameter structure, but also because it is believed that they can handle well structural breaks or nonstationarities in asset price volatility.
During retailer-initiated price wars (PWs), hundreds of brands are involved simultaneously, affecting brands’ and retailers’ positioning and ultimately making the performance outcome for individual brands difficult to predict. Likewise, the impact on brand performance after the PW, when prices are restored, is unclear.
Business-to-business electronic markets have emerged as robust, legitimate channels for conducting transactions, where firms participate in these markets according to their investments in the channel, such that they might participate as an expert, explorer, or passive firm.
The authors analyzed the planning problem for HIV screening, testing and care. This problem consists of determining the optimal fraction of patients to be screened in every period as well as the optimum staffing level at each part of the health care system to maximize the total health benefits to the patients measured by Quality-Adjusted Life-Years (QALYs) gained.
Co-production (simultaneous production of multiple outputs) occurs in some emission-intensive basic material and agricultural industries. This paper is motivated by ones in which a supplier sells its primary product to a buyer that incurs an emissions cost (voluntarily, or due to government-imposed climate policy) and sells co-products into markets without emissions costs.