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Market-Based Solutions to Vital Economic Issues

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Real Estate investments continue to rise in importance in the alternative asset space. The Institute for Private Capital will host this event which will present innovative and leading research on real estate investments.

As the Consumer Price Index rises, businesses sound the alarm over supply-chain bottlenecks, and federal stimulus checks spur spending, the chatter around inflation is increasing. In this Kenan Insight, we explore what effect this potential perfect storm for an inflation spike could have on a recovering U.S. economy.

The widespread adoption of technological advances has made the move to working from home during the COVID-19 pandemic a success. In this Kenan Insight, we look at why the switch was such a win, its impact on worker productivity, and what it means in the long term for workers, office spaces and cities.

In financial markets, forward contracts reflect market perception of future price dynamics. Nontransparent markets, like commercial real estate investments, lack such tools. We use a panel of NYC office leases between 2005 and 2016 to estimate a dynamic term structure of forward lease rates (rental revenues), which reflects changing expectations by tenants and landlords about future rental contract conditions. Our imputed term structure is time-varying, generally upward-sloping, and often exhibits an inverted-U shape. We also find that shocks to forward lease rate dynamics are initially most keenly felt in the long-dated lease market and are subsequently transmitted to the short-term lease market.

The list of stores that have closed or gone bankrupt in 2020 reads like a “who’s who” of venerable retail giants. Although retailing has been experiencing tectonic shifts for several years, the COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated both challenges and opportunities. In this Kenan Insight, we explore four major trends in retail, with a particular focus on food retailing.

In stark contrast with liquid asset returns, I find that commercial real estate idiosyncratic return means and variances do not scale with the holding period, even after accounting for all cash flow relevant events. This puzzling phenomenon survives controlling for vintage effects, systematic risk heterogeneity, and a host of other explanations. To explain the findings, I derive an equilibrium search-based asset-pricing model which, when calibrated, provides an excellent fit to transactions data.

This research paper develops a substantial, large-scale database of building energy use, energy audit reports, land use, and financial characteristics in New York City to empirically model the hurdle rate for energy retrofit investments, using actual audit data per permitted renovation work.

Commercial real estate is a major asset class, with an estimated value of more than $12 trillion in the U.S. alone. But the stay-at-home orders and business closures precipitated by the COVID-19 pandemic have the potential to negatively – and disastrously – affect commercial properties. What will the short- and long-term impacts be, which types of properties will be hardest hit and what policies can be put in place to help stem the tide of losses? UNC Kenan-Flagler Business School Professor and Leonard W. Wood Center for Real Estate Studies Faculty Advisor Andra Ghent and her colleagues examine these issues in this week’s Kenan Insight.

A panel of experts convened by UNC Kenan-Flagler Business School and its affiliated Kenan Institute of Private Enterprise will be offering a press briefing via webinar on the impact of COVID-19 on traditional retail, including product supply chains, innovative new channels for customer fulfillment and the resulting implications for commercial real estate. Join Tuesday, April 28, at 11 a.m. EDT.

The long-term upward trend in Hong Kong's housing price and its ever-increasing price-rent ratio has caused extensive concern from investors and researchers. Dynamic Gordon Model ties an asset's worth to the expected value of the future payoff stream accruing to the asset, and it has been widely used in the literature on finance and real estate asset. As far as we know, this model has not been applied to the research on the Hong Kong real estate market. In this paper, we used this model to analyze the quarterly date of Hong Kong housing prices and other economic indicators from 1999 to 2019.