healthcare

Congress

Inflation Reduction in Name Only, but Still a Big Deal

It is probably not a mystery to even the most casual observer of political affairs why the historic climate, health care and tax bill signed earlier this month was dubbed the Inflation Reduction Act. Inflation is high and causing real problems for many households, and so if only Congress could legislate it away by enacting … This is not to say that the package does not deserve any enthusiasm; it is an impressive legislative feat, making significant, though imperfect, advances on health care and climate change. On the other hand, the effect it will have on inflation, its raison d’être in name, will be modest at best and occur only over time.

Stuck in Phase 2.X?

Stuck in Phase 2.X?

September 13 will mark six months since U.S. President Donald Trump declared a national state of emergency in response to the COVID-19 a national pandemic.  And here in North Carolina, Governor Roy Cooper announced last week that the state will transition to “Phase 2.5,” with further easing of restrictions on certain places and types of activities including mass gatherings, playgrounds and gyms, but with other restrictions – such as those on bars and entertainment venues – remaining in place. It seems like a good time to take stock of where we’ve been, where we are now and what lies ahead.

Charlotte

A New Plateau?

The health and economic data from this past week brought both good and bad news about the state of affairs in North Carolina. Health data suggest the growth in new cases is slowing, that hospital capacity remains available and that we might be getting a better handle on identification.  While this is certainly encouraging in the battle against the pandemic, a similar levelling off in business activity does not bode as well for the economy. In this week’s commentary we seek to unpack some of the details in the data to understand what may be a new plateau.

State Local Government Budgets

Will COVID-19 Bring a Double-Dip Recession?

The recent spike in COVID-19 cases nationally, including a large bump in North Carolina, has us worried on a number of fronts—including its potential impact on the budding economic recovery. The $64,000 question has become, “Will we see a double-dip recession?” After the substantial rebound in consumer spending in May and early June, the most recent data suggests a stall in activity over the last month. Combined with an out-of-control worsening of the pandemic in several states, this trend is worrisome. Yet current conditions do not guarantee another plunge in the economy like the one we experienced in April. In this commentary, we look at the situation from our preferred three angles: health statistics, economic data, and individual behavior and welfare assessment.