Up Next

ki-logo-white
Market-Based Solutions to Vital Economic Issues

SEARCH

ki-logo-white
Market-Based Solutions to Vital Economic Issues
Research
Jul 1, 2014

The Financial Content of Inflation Risks in the Euro Area

Abstract

Recent studies emphasize that survey-based inflation risk measures are informative about future inflation and thus useful for monetary authorities. However, these data are typically available at a quarterly frequency whereas monetary policy decisions require a more frequent monitoring of such risks. Using the ECB survey of professional forecasters, we show that high-frequency financial market data have predictive power for the low-frequency survey-based inflation risk indicators observed at the end of a quarter. We rely on MIDAS regressions to handle the problem of mixing data with different frequencies that such an analysis implies. We also illustrate that upside and downside risks react differently to financial indicators.

Note: Research papers posted on SSRN, including any findings, may differ from the final version chosen for publication in academic journals.


View Working Paper View Publication on UNC Library View Publication on Journal Site

You may also be interested in: