Past research examines factors that impact marijuana use. However, there is limited empirical evidence regarding the combined role of previous experience, attitudes and the situation in determining present and future marijuana use. We fill this gap by studying factors that affect misprediction of marijuana use among teenagers. Specifically, we study (1) whether individuals are able to correctly predict their future marijuana use, (2) the direction of misprediction (over versus under prediction) and (3) the factors that affect errors in prediction.
We use data from a federally sponsored survey about teenagers’ marijuana consumption in the United States. We find that, teenagers under predict future marijuana use and that this inaccuracy is moderated by the extent of use. We also find that misprediction is affected by both attitudes and the situation through main and interaction effects. We outline some policy implications of our findings.