Issues constricting the supply of workers, the sector-by-sector employment effects of a potential recession, the emergence of new technologies – these are the primary labor demand themes we’ll focus on in our 2023 grand challenge.
Using a sample of the 48 contiguous United States, we consider the problem of forecasting state and local governments’ revenues and expenditures in real time using models that feature mixed-frequency data. We find that single-equation mixeddata sampling (MIDAS) regressions that predict low-frequency fiscal outcomes using high-frequency economic data historically outperform both traditional fiscal forecasting models and theoretically motivated multi-equation models.
To enhance our understanding of emerging markets, we study a data set from the Casablanca stock exchange containing all the transaction records over a long span. The exchange was included in 1996 in the International Finance Corporation (IFC) data base roughly 3 years after important market reforms.
What can the corporate response to George Floyd’s murder teach us about today’s diversity challenges? Discover how meaningful actions on racial equity affected market valuations, through research from UNC Kenan-Flagler's Daniela De la Parra.
Chief Economist Gerald Cohen outlines three possible paths for the U.S. economy in coming months, as well as the indicators to keep an eye on.
...Kenan Institute. Data and Modeling The American Growth Project is distinct from other analytical endeavors in its microeconomic focus and its broad scope. Our data come from government and academic...
...analyze them, is difficult and limited. Cong and Liang will work to develop a framework to analyze large-scale unstructured data on start-ups, especially text-based data from entrepreneurial websites, news and...
On Nov. 1-2, leading practitioners and top researchers from around the world joined together at the tenth annual Private Equity Research Consortium (PERC) Symposium in Chapel Hill, NC. Hosted by the Institute for Private Capital, an affiliated center of the Frank Hawkins Kenan Institute of Private Enterprise, the conference has established a reputation as leading the discussion between leading academics and practitioners in the private capital arena. This year’s symposium not only unveiled the latest research insights, but also served as an occasion to look back at ten years of achievements and successes.
COVID-19 brought heightened focus to paid sick leave policies – a benefit to which roughly 25% of civilian workers don’t have access in the U.S. After sick leave mandates were temporarily implemented during the pandemic, UNC Kenan-Flagler Business School researchers found employment increased, particularly among low-skilled workers and in industries that previously had little access to paid sick leave. In this week's Kenan Insight, our experts explore possible drivers behind this finding as well as potential policy and business implications.
Environmental, social and governance (ESG) issues continue to grow in importance, and companies are facing unprecedented internal and external criticism and pressures to address them.
...study is an empirical analysis of SBA loan outcome data obtained under the Freedom of Information Act, covering loans about loans granted under the SBA 7(a) loan program. This analysis...
The paper evaluates the performance of several recently proposed tests for structural breaks in the conditional variance dynamics of asset returns. The tests apply to the class of ARCH and SV type processes as well as data‐driven volatility estimators using high‐frequency data.
The crash of the stablecoin TerraUSD last month prompted talk among policymakers of tighter regulations for cryptocurrency markets, a world that was built around the ideas of independence and privacy. In this week’s Kenan Insight, experts who participated in a recent webinar discuss how regulation can move crypto forward and what form new rules and infrastructure might take.
Commercial real estate (CRE) is real estate held to generate income or used as an input into production by firms. It is notably different from other asset classes of a similar magnitude in that CRE is traded in private, illiquid markets. CRE is a hugely important asset class that has received less attention from the academic literature than asset classes that rival CRE in terms of sheer value. Yet pension funds, life insurance companies, sovereign wealth funds and other institutional investors seek the diversification benefits provided by CRE’s unusually steady income flow. The paper, “Commercial Real Estate as an Asset Class,” by Andra Ghent of UNC Kenan-Flagler Business School, Walter Torous of the MIT Center for Real Estate and Rossen Valkanov of UCSD’s Rady School of Management provides a much-needed overview of the CRE literature thus far, focusing on its attributes as an asset class.
Fifth Third Bank and the Kenan Institute of Private Enterprise at UNC Kenan-Flagler Business School have launched Empowering American Cities, a program that delivers local economic information tailored for business leaders looking to grow their operations.
UNC Kenan-Flagler Business School Clinical Associate Professor of Finance Arzu Ozoguz discusses the SEC's anticipated new rules around sustainability.
While economists have long theorized that wealthier individuals may purchase less life and property insurance because they can rely on their savings if something unexpected happens, a new study of more than 63,000 people shows that, in practice, quite the opposite is true. This week’s Kenan Insight offers a chance for our experts to explore the findings of their new study, which suggest disparities in insurance coverage could help explain and exacerbate existing financial inequalities.
“Every business I enter is looking for employees” was a common refrain in our Carolina Across 100 survey, with 79% of the total survey sample selecting employment/staffing concerns among their top three negative impacts of COVID-19 on their organization. Is the staffing shortage just a function of COVID-19 that will correct itself as COVID abates or are there larger demographic and economic forces at work? The answer is a bit of both.
Since 2001, the number of financial statement line items forecasted by analysts and managers that I/B/E/S and FactSet capture in their data feeds has soared. Using this new data, we find that 13 item surprises—11 income statement and 2 cash flow statement analyst and management guidance surprises—reliably explain firms’ signed earnings announcement returns.