2/6/2021 — We axiomatize subjective probabilities on finite domains without requiring richness in the outcome space or restrictions on risk preference through event exchangeability, defined in Chew and Sagi (2006), which was implicit in the prior literature (Savage, 1954; Machina and Schmeidler, 1992; Grant, 1995). We characterize the unique subjective probability representing the underlying exchangeability relation.

1/1/2020 — In financial markets, forward contracts reflect market perception of future price dynamics. Nontransparent markets, like commercial real estate investments, lack such tools. We use a panel of NYC office leases between 2005 and 2016 to estimate a dynamic term structure of forward lease rates (rental revenues), which reflects changing expectations by tenants and landlords about future rental contract conditions.

• KEYWORD(S):
• real estate

7/2/2021 — This paper experimentally tests the Fox-Tversky (1995) source preference hypothesis as axiomatized in Chew and Sagi (2008) where people may have preference between equally distributed risks depending on the underlying sources of uncertainty.

• KEYWORD(S):
• finance
• global business