In January, the Kenan Institute released our projected 2024 GDP growth rates for 150 microeconomies across the United States. We anticipate a slowdown in 2024 with almost all our 150 Extended Metropolitan Areas (EMAs) experiencing a deceleration in growth rates and 26 seeing outright contraction. Economic headwinds, however, are felt dissimilarly, and some of the country’s top-performing EMAs will achieve solid growth in 2024. Who are these high achievers?
Who Are Our Top EMA growers of 2024?
Of the 50 largest EMAs in the United States, we project that the following will be the top 10 performers in terms of economic growth in 2024:
- Austin
- San Francisco Bay Area
- Raleigh and Durham
- Nashville
- Seattle
- Salt Lake City
- Dallas
- Charlotte
- Oklahoma City
- Portland
Tech Hotspots Still Compete for No. 1
At the start of 2023, we forecast that San Fransico would be No. 1 in GDP growth. By midyear, Austin moved into the top spot, and our latest estimate is that the Golden Gate city tumbled in the rankings to the seventh spot, weighed down by job losses in the region. In 2024, Austin remains at the top of our forecast, with San Fransico coming in second. While both cities are expected to grow steadily in 2024, our analysis shows that their growth will slow compared with the previous two years.
New entrants to the top 10 list include Charlotte, Oklahoma City and Portland at positions 8, 9 and 10, respectively. Leaving the top 10 list are San Antonio, Tampa and Jacksonville, with Jacksonville tumbling 15 spots in 2024 to No. 25 on our list.
The 2024 rankings, which are based on our model’s forecast, are compared with our latest estimates for 2023, which are based on a complete year of realized underlying economic statistics (official 2023 GDP numbers will be released in December 2024).
What Is Driving Growth in the top 10?
The top 10 EMAs’ industry mix differs from those of the other 40 largest EMAs in some important ways that help to explain why the top 10 are growing fastest. This group, on average, has a higher share of employment than the other 40 in three key sectors: Information, Professional Science and Technical Services, and Education and Health Services.
Information and Professional Science and Technical Services are high-productivity sectors that incorporate occupations including computer programming, science and technical consulting, and engineering and architectural services. The average worker in these sectors is particularly well-educated, holding a bachelor’s degree or higher at nearly double the rate of other industries. This high educational attainment is, in part, driving a roughly 40% productivity bonus that the top 10 boast compared with the rest of the EMAs.
A relatively high employment share in Education and Health Services is also notable because this sector encompasses many communities’ anchor institutions. Hospitals and schools are businesses that do not usually exhibit wild growth, yet they do not significantly contract either. Having a large portion of your labor force working in this sector engenders a level of stability, as these jobs do not substantially ebb and flow with the business cycle. This sector may not drive rapid GDP growth, but it can act as a bulwark during recessionary periods.
2024 Growth Estimates for the Largest 50 EMAs
Below is the full list of 2024 GDP growth estimates for the largest 50 EMAs along with the change in growth and rank from the previous year.
table, th, td { border: 1px solid white; border-collapse: collapse; font-size:0.8rem; }| 2024 GDP Growth Ranking | EMA Name | 2024 GDP Growth | 2023 GDP Growth | Change in Growth | Change in Rank | 2023 GDP Growth Ranking | GDP (2024, billions USD) | GDP Share of U.S. Total (2024) | GDP Rank (2024) | Population (2020, millions) |
| 1 | Austin, Texas | 3.7% | 5.6% | -1.9% | 0 | 1 | 212 | 0.9% | 21 | 2.3 |
| 2 | San Francisco Bay Area, California | 3.0% | 3.8% | -0.8% | +5 | 7 | 1,275 | 5.6% | 3 | 9.7 |
| 3 | Raleigh and Durham, North Carolina | 2.4% | 4.1% | -1.7% | 0 | 3 | 172 | 0.8% | 28 | 2.1 |
| 4 | Nashville, Tennessee | 2.3% | 3.9% | -1.7% | 0 | 4 | 178 | 0.8% | 27 | 2.1 |
| 5 | Seattle, Washington | 2.3% | 3.9% | -1.6% | +1 | 6 | 537 | 2.4% | 9 | 5.0 |
| 6 | Salt Lake City, Utah | 2.1% | 3.9% | -1.8% | -1 | 5 | 198 | 0.9% | 23 | 2.7 |
| 7 | Dallas, Texas | 2.0% | 4.3% | -2.3% | -5 | 2 | 649 | 2.9% | 7 | 8.1 |
| 8 | Charlotte, North Carolina | 1.8% | 3.4% | -1.6% | +5 | 13 | 211 | 0.9% | 22 | 2.8 |
| 9 | Oklahoma City, Oklahoma | 1.8% | 3.3% | -1.5% | +5 | 14 | 82 | 0.4% | 43 | 1.5 |
| 10 | Portland, Oregon | 1.8% | 2.8% | -1.0% | +12 | 22 | 223 | 1.0% | 19 | 3.3 |
| 11 | San Antonio, Texas | 1.7% | 3.8% | -2.0% | -3 | 8 | 149 | 0.7% | 34 | 2.6 |
| 12 | Phoenix, Arizona | 1.7% | 3.4% | -1.7% | 0 | 12 | 326 | 1.4% | 13 | 4.9 |
| 13 | San Diego, California | 1.7% | 2.5% | -0.9% | +11 | 24 | 268 | 1.2% | 17 | 3.3 |
| 14 | Denver, Colorado | 1.6% | 2.8% | -1.2% | +4 | 18 | 314 | 1.4% | 15 | 3.6 |
| 15 | Orlando, Florida | 1.5% | 3.6% | -2.1% | -4 | 11 | 237 | 1.0% | 18 | 4.2 |
| 16 | Houston, Texas | 1.4% | 3.2% | -1.8% | -1 | 15 | 546 | 2.4% | 8 | 7.3 |
| 17 | Las Vegas, Nevada | 1.3% | 3.1% | -1.9% | -1 | 16 | 144 | 0.6% | 35 | 2.3 |
| 18 | Washington, D.C., and Baltimore, Maryland | 1.3% | 3.0% | -1.7% | -1 | 17 | 1,208 | 5.3% | 4 | 10.0 |
| 19 | Los Angeles, California | 1.2% | 2.1% | -0.9% | +10 | 29 | 1,353 | 6.0% | 2 | 18.6 |
| 20 | Tampa, Florida | 1.2% | 3.7% | -2.5% | -11 | 9 | 197 | 0.9% | 24 | 3.2 |
| 21 | Miami and Fort Lauderdale, Florida | 1.2% | 2.8% | -1.6% | -2 | 19 | 461 | 2.0% | 12 | 6.9 |
| 22 | Sacramento, California | 1.2% | 2.0% | -0.8% | +12 | 34 | 166 | 0.7% | 31 | 2.7 |
| 23 | Boston, Massachusetts | 1.2% | 2.2% | -1.1% | +3 | 26 | 726 | 3.2% | 6 | 8.5 |
| 24 | Atlanta, Georgia | 1.1% | 2.8% | -1.7% | -4 | 20 | 516 | 2.3% | 10 | 6.9 |
| 25 | Jacksonville, Florida | 1.1% | 3.6% | -2.5% | -15 | 10 | 108 | 0.5% | 39 | 1.7 |
| 26 | Columbus, Ohio | 1.0% | 2.2% | -1.2% | +2 | 28 | 167 | 0.7% | 30 | 2.5 |
| 27 | Fresno, California | 1.0% | 1.7% | -0.8% | +11 | 38 | 60 | 0.3% | 50 | 1.3 |
| 28 | Indianapolis, Indiana | 0.9% | 2.2% | -1.4% | -1 | 27 | 182 | 0.8% | 26 | 2.5 |
| 29 | Louisville, Kentucky | 0.7% | 1.5% | -0.7% | +15 | 44 | 88 | 0.4% | 41 | 1.5 |
| 30 | Minneapolis and St. Paul, Minnesota | 0.7% | 1.9% | -1.2% | +5 | 35 | 306 | 1.4% | 16 | 4.1 |
| 31 | Hartford, Connecticut | 0.7% | 1.3% | -0.7% | +14 | 45 | 122 | 0.5% | 37 | 1.5 |
| 32 | Cincinnati, Ohio | 0.7% | 2.0% | -1.3% | +1 | 33 | 165 | 0.7% | 32 | 2.3 |
| 33 | Richmond, Virginia | 0.6% | 2.8% | -2.2% | -12 | 21 | 107 | 0.5% | 40 | 1.3 |
| 34 | New York, New York | 0.6% | 2.1% | -1.5% | -3 | 31 | 2,173 | 9.6% | 1 | 23.6 |
| 35 | Kansas City, Missouri, and Kansas City, Kansas | 0.5% | 2.2% | -1.7% | -10 | 25 | 165 | 0.7% | 33 | 2.5 |
| 36 | Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania | 0.5% | 1.6% | -1.1% | +5 | 41 | 169 | 0.7% | 29 | 2.7 |
| 37 | Philadelphia, Pennsylvania | 0.4% | 1.5% | -1.1% | +5 | 42 | 509 | 2.3% | 11 | 7.4 |
| 38 | Grand Rapids, Michigan | 0.4% | 2.8% | -2.4% | -15 | 23 | 81 | 0.4% | 44 | 1.4 |
| 39 | Greenville, South Carolina | 0.4% | 2.1% | -1.8% | -9 | 30 | 77 | 0.3% | 47 | 1.5 |
| 40 | Harrisburg, Pennsylvania | 0.3% | 2.1% | -1.7% | -8 | 32 | 74 | 0.3% | 49 | 1.3 |
| 41 | Birmingham, Alabama | 0.2% | 1.6% | -1.4% | -1 | 40 | 76 | 0.3% | 48 | 1.4 |
| 42 | St. Louis, Missouri | 0.2% | 1.7% | -1.5% | -3 | 39 | 185 | 0.8% | 25 | 2.9 |
| 43 | Chicago, Illinois | 0.1% | 1.1% | -1.0% | +4 | 47 | 733 | 3.2% | 5 | 10.0 |
| 44 | Virginia Beach, Virginia | 0.1% | 1.8% | -1.7% | -7 | 37 | 116 | 0.5% | 38 | 1.9 |
| 45 | Milwaukee, Wisconsin | 0.0% | 1.3% | -1.4% | +1 | 46 | 126 | 0.6% | 36 | 2.1 |
| 46 | Cleveland, Ohio | -0.1% | 1.9% | -2.0% | -10 | 36 | 218 | 1.0% | 20 | 3.6 |
| 47 | Greensboro, North Carolina | -0.2% | 1.1% | -1.3% | +1 | 48 | 86 | 0.4% | 42 | 1.7 |
| 48 | Detroit, Michigan | -0.3% | 1.5% | -1.7% | -5 | 43 | 325 | 1.4% | 14 | 5.4 |
| 49 | Memphis, Tennessee | -0.3% | 0.3% | -0.6% | +1 | 50 | 80 | 0.4% | 46 | 1.4 |
| 50 | New Orleans, Louisiana | -0.5% | 0.4% | -1.0% | -1 | 49 | 80 | 0.4% | 45 | 1.5 |
American Growth Project: Top-Performing EMAs for 2024