The Biden administration has proposed several multi-trillion dollar initiatives to invest more federal dollars in infrastructure, education, healthcare and more. However, these big ticket items come at a significant cost, which the president hopes to cover through tax reforms. Proposed changes could affect individual income taxes for high earners, corporate taxes, international taxes and capital gains – and needless to say, the proposed reforms have drawn both strong critics and supporters. As dizzying negotiations and politicking continue in Washington, two of our experts unpack the proposed tax changes and their potential impacts on businesses and households in this week’s Kenan Insight.
Concerns about further supply-chain troubles are on the rise. Just a few months ago the “temporary disruptions” stemming from covid were predicted to work themselves out in 2022. However, businesses are now faced with the possibility of disruptions much more severe than those experienced to date. These stem from two sources: interrupted supplies in essential raw materials and agricultural commodities resulting from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the potential for a rapid (and massive) spread of COVIC-19 in China resulting in suspensions to manufacturing operations there.
Does the quality of startups increase when the quantity drops? Does entrepreneurial experience help or hurt a corporate job candidate? Do diverse teams make for better startups? The 2022 Trends in Entrepreneurship report brings together our global network of affiliated experts to address these questions and more – with key findings highlighted in this week’s insight.
The latest report from the Department of Labor showed continued robust job growth. Employers added 431,000 jobs in March. The news of sustained job gains speaks to the strength of the U.S. economy. Moreover, the labor force participation rate inched up slightly to 62.4% in March, from 62.3% in February, indicating more Americans are reentering the workforce. We still have a long way to go to resolve the imbalance between job openings and unemployed people, however, and this means that current issues of worker burnout will also linger.
The spread between 10-year and 3-month Treasuries – my favorite economic indicator – remains strongly in positive territory, suggesting a recession is not in the cards soon. This indicator has predicted all recessions since the mid-1960s, with a lead time of roughly one year, though the timing is inexact. The 10-year/2-year spread, which briefly inverted recently, is less reliable.
Female involvement in the workforce remains important to the U.S. economy, but COVID-19 has only exacerbated a drop in participation rates. To reverse the trend, businesses are enhancing maternity leave, child care services and access to fertility and family-planning services, according to research by UNC Kenan-Flagler Business School experts.
Despite strong economic indicators—2.5% GDP growth, unemployment under 4%, and easing inflation—American consumer sentiment remains low. Kenan Institute experts explore why the public's mood doesn’t match the upbeat data, highlighting deeper sources of economic unease.
To find signs of productivity, we must first know where to look. Chief Economist Gerald Cohen describes how an area’s industry mix is key to its productivity and how adjusting that mix can drive more local growth using data from our American Growth Project.
UNC-Chapel Hill’s youth representative at this year’s UN climate conference offers her thoughts on key outcomes, the role of the private sector, and the power of diverse and cross-generational perspectives in finding solutions.
The destruction that Hurricane Helene brought to Western North Carolina in September, followed by this month's wildfires in Southern California, illustrates the financial risk that increasingly unpredictable weather can pose to homeowners and the insurance system.
The argument that ESG investing generates more stable and higher long-term returns has come under scrutiny, including recent data showing long-run underperformance of ESG funds over the past five years. In this Kenan Insight, we provide some clarification based on recent research that revisits fundamental questions: why and how some investors take ESG factors into account in the first place.
This year Rethinc. Labs joined the Duke Quantum Center and the IBM Quantum Hub at NC State to bring their Financial Services focus to the Triangle Quantum Computing Seminar Series. For our next discussion we welcome Dylan Herman, from the JPMorgan Chase Future Lab for Applied Research and Engineering (FLARE). The focus of the FLARE quantum program is to develop quantum algorithms for financial applications and quantum-resistant cryptographic solutions.
Join our panel of experts who will share their technological, legal and social expertise to answer the questions raised by the real-world performance of risk assessment instruments.
AI applications are ubiquitous – and so is their potential to exhibit unintended bias. Algorithmic and automation biases and algorithm aversion all plague the human-AI partnership, eroding trust between people and machines that learn. But can bias be eradicated from AI? Dr, Fay Cobb Payton, Professor of Information Systems & Technology at NC State’s Poole College of Management and a Program Director at the National Science Foundation in the Division of Computer and Network Systems moderates a discussion between Timnit Gebru, research scientist and the co-lead of the Ethical AI Team at Google and the co-founder of Black in AI; Brenda Leong, senior counsel and director of artificial intelligence and ethics at the Future of Privacy Forum; Professor Mohammad Jarrahi, associate professor at UNC’s School of Information and Library Science; and Chris Wicher, Rethinc. Labs AI Research Fellow, former director of AI Research at KPMG’s AI Center of Excellence and Vice President of Watson Engineering at IBM.
The COVID-19 pandemic has put 18 million jobs at small businesses in the U.S. at risk – which could as much as quadruple the nation’s total unemployment rate. The effects of both the coronavirus and recent government relief programs were explored by a panel of Kenan Institute-convened experts during a press briefing held yesterday. The full recording of this briefing—along with a deeper-dive analysis on the specific implications of the financial downturn on small business employment by Kenan Institute Research Director Professor Christian Lundblad and UNC Kenan-Flagler Business School Professor Paige Ouimet—is available in this week’s Kenan Insight.
Founder and Research Director, Institute for Private Capital; Van and Kay Weatherspoon Distinguished Professor of Finance, UNC Kenan-Flagler Business School; Faculty Director, Luther Hodges Scholars
Operational systems increasingly rely upon specialized experts who can provide high-quality service. However, these experts, by definition, only address one part of an overall problem and so individuals are needed to coordinate the overall service provision. In many services, this coordination responsibility may be shared across multiple parties serving in the role of a gatekeeper.
A pooled Public Use Microdata Sample File of the Census Bureau’s Annual American Community Survey (2011-2015) is used to (1) create a demographic profile of the nation’s older adult population; (2) develop an older adult household typology which encapsulates both generational dynamics and diverse living arrangements; and (3) identify older adults who face the greatest barriers to aging in place. Policies and strategies that support and facilitate successful aging in place for the most vulnerable older adults are discussed.
American Community Survey data are used to develop typologies of the generational dynamics and living arrangements of the estimated 1.6 million U.S. older adult households who will likely encounter the most difficulty aging in place. Policy recommendations and strategies are offered to address the specific barriers and challenges that must be overcome in order for these older adults to successfully live out their lives in their homes and community.
Older adults will drive U.S. population growth over the next quarter century. Projected to grow four times as fast as the total population, older adults will make up of 22 percent of the population in 2040, up from 15% in 2015. We believe this population aging can be a new engine for innovation, business development, and employment growth in the U.S.