The Small Business Investor Alliance surveyed the small business portfolios of Small Business Investment Companies to measure the impact the pandemic is having on their operations and employment. Small businesses are facing extreme cash flow concerns. Small businesses are already laying off a substantial number of employees and without a significant change in trajectory, layoffs are anticipated to increase tremendously. Data analysis provided by the Kenan Institute of Private Enterprise.
Using a sample of the 48 contiguous United States, we consider the problem of forecasting state and local governments’ revenues and expenditures in real time using models that feature mixed-frequency data. We find that single-equation mixeddata sampling (MIDAS) regressions that predict low-frequency fiscal outcomes using high-frequency economic data historically outperform both traditional fiscal forecasting models and theoretically motivated multi-equation models.
Commercial real estate is a major asset class, with an estimated value of more than $12 trillion in the U.S. alone. But the stay-at-home orders and business closures precipitated by the COVID-19 pandemic have the potential to negatively – and disastrously – affect commercial properties. What will the short- and long-term impacts be, which types of properties will be hardest hit and what policies can be put in place to help stem the tide of losses? UNC Kenan-Flagler Business School Professor and Leonard W. Wood Center for Real Estate Studies Faculty Advisor Andra Ghent and her colleagues examine these issues in this week’s Kenan Insight.
This study shows that the municipal yield curve is informative about local economic outcomes.
The mounting health and economic toll of the COVID-19 pandemic raises many questions about how this unprecedented event will affect the U.S. economy. In this Kenan Insight, we explore how people’s expectations about their own financial situation may hold some answers as to how the larger economy will perform.
This paper provides the first large-sample analysis of buyout and venture capital fund values over their lifetimes. Specifically, we examine interim fund investment multiples (TVPIs), internal rates of return (IRRs), and direct-alphas based on the current reported net asset values (NAVs) at each quarter of a fund’s life.
The evidence concerning high deductible health plans (HDHPs) suggests three key patterns involving people with diabetes...
We evaluate the effects of two types of breaks (expected versus unexpected), and two distinct forms of unexpected breaks, and find that unexpected breaks can, under certain conditions, yield immediate post-break performance increases.
In response to the economic chaos caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, the federal government launched its largest fiscal stimulus in modern history—the CARES Act. But with $2 trillion invested in small businesses, unemployment benefits and direct cash payments to households, the CARES Act has still fallen short of its goals to spur consumer spending and restore employment. This Kenan Insight analyzes what went wrong, and offers suggestions for the anticipated next round of federal economic aid.
Battered by the COVID-19 pandemic, the precipitous drop in the economy and continuing racial justice protests, American colleges and universities are facing their most challenging period ever as they head into the fall semester. In this Kenan Insight, we explore what the long-term impact of such forces will be on higher education, and what policy and strategic actions might help mitigate the damage.
The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 (TCJA) allowed for the creation of Opportunity Zones (OZs) — specially designated census tracts encompassing low-income neighborhoods meant to stimulate investment through large tax incentives. But critics say the program has not spurred additional investment as much as rewarded politically connected investors. In this Kenan Insight, we investigate what role, if any, bias and political party affiliation plays in the selection of OZs.
History informs us that some people, especially the wealthy, typically flee cities in response
to pandemics and other major catastrophes. Media accounts and preliminary empirical
research suggest that the response to the COVID-19 pandemic is no exception. Nearly a half
million people reportedly fled hard-hit New York City within two months of the World Health
Organization declaring the coronavirus disease a global pandemic.Some coronavirus pandemic refugees headed to nearby suburbs, others headed to second homes and vacation spots in other states, and still others moved back home to live with parents.
Immigrants are once again the targets of draconian policymaking. It is during the COVID-19 pandemic this time. Through a series of presidential proclamations and other executive branch maneuvers, the Trump Administration is attempting to leverage a host of so-called migration management tools to ban entry and force some immigrant to leave the country—all under the guise of containing the spread of the coronavirus and protecting American jobs.
The COVID-19 pandemic and the nationwide civil unrest spawned by the recent spate of senseless killings of unarmed African Americans have illuminated what executive development professionals have been telling private and public sector leaders and managers for quite some time. We are living in an era of increasing volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity—a VUCA World. “Certain-uncertainty” is the new normal in today’s society and economy.
Major strides have been taken in recent years to push toward more sustainable investing practices, yet it remains to be seen if such initiatives are actually meeting their goals. In this Kenan Insight, we look at the challenges of both implementing and measuring the effectiveness of social entrepreneurship and impact investing.
The coronavirus pandemic of 2020 exemplifies a worst-case scenario for federal, state, and local disaster preparedness planning and illustrates some of the United States’ fundamental public health infrastructure flaws. While stay-at-home orders and economic shutdowns initially depressed disease spread, they harmed businesses and organizations, threatened individuals’ livelihoods, and negatively impacted community well-being. National standards for COVID-19 management tools and protocols were not available when needed, and state, local, and federal guidance differed, and often conflicted, in ways that confused the public and created economic uncertainty.
In December 2019, the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill (UNC) Center for the Business of Health (CBOH) began a research partnership with Sharecare, a leading digital health company founded by technology entrepreneur, Jeff Arnold, to assess the economic value of changing various health behaviors via mobile health (mHealth) interventions.
On March 11, 2020, the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a global pandemic. Within two months, nearly half a million people fled hard-hit New York City. Will they return once the crisis has passed? In this Kenan Insight, we explore how the ongoing pandemic is raising questions about the future attractiveness of large cities as places to live and do business.
We specify and estimate a time-varying Markov model of COVID-19 cases for the US in 2020. We find that the estimated level of undetected infections spiked in March and remained elevated through May. However, since late April estimated undetected infections have generally declined though it was not until June or July that detected cases exceeded the estimated number of undetected cases.
We document what fraction of the housing stock in US cities is affordable to different family types. Rather than looking at what fraction of their income people actually pay in rent in each city, which reflects a mix of households’ ability to pay and supply conditions, we look at the extent to which the housing stock is affordable using discrete housing expenditure share cutoffs and the distribution of rents in the American Community Survey from each city.