Special Advisor & Venture Capital Multiplier Fund Manager, Hatteras Venture Partners
Jacob H. Schiff Professor of Investment Banking, Harvard Business School, and 2024 Kenan Institute Distinguished Fellow
Isabelle and Scott Black Professor of Political Economy, Harvard Kennedy School, and 2025 Kenan Institute Distinguished Fellow
The jumps in the inflation rate over the last few months have been larger and longer-lasting than expected. For much of 2022 economic forecasters, including those at the Federal Reserve, assumed that higher inflation rates would be short-lived—or “transitory” using the preferred jargon of the day. Inflation was expected to start shifting back towards the Fed’s 2% target as supply-chain bottlenecks were resolved and a pandemic-induced shift in demand for consumer goods swung back toward consumer services. Instead, recent inflation prints have set 40-year records and we are seeing more discussion about the possibility of a “wage-price” spiral.
Inflation hit its highest level in almost forty-years, with overall prices up 7% in 2021. Is this a transitory increase as a result of COVID-driven demand and supply shortages, with inflation likely to decelerate to around 2% over the next year? Or, is inflation the result of a meaningfully overheated economy and likely to remain meaningfully higher than the Fed’s 2% target precipitating changes in business behavior and an aggressive policy response?
By all accounts, there is steady good news coming the Federal Reserve’s way. And yet, the Fed seems to be in no rush to start cutting rates. Dive deeper into what the Fed will do to make sure inflation remains at that 2% goal.
Inflation has come down but may still have some fight left in it. One concern is what happens going forward as the relief from pandemic price pressures disappears, but deflationary tailwinds are no longer there.
The arrival of two approved COVID-19 vaccines provides a clear path to the end of the pandemic that held most of 2020 hostage. But a recent resurgence of the virus and skyrocketing rates of infection indicate that a full return to normalcy—including the pre-pandemic work environment— is still months in the future. In this Kenan Insight, we examine the relevant factors that will determine when and how we go back to the office.