Much has been made about the labor force participation rate, or the percentage of Americans over 16 who are working or actively looking for work — and for good cause, given the number of unfilled vacancies at U.S. firms. If fewer Americans are working, it is going to be harder for firms to staff all of their openings. Currently, 62.2% of adult Americans are working or looking for work. This compares with a historical average of 63.9% in 2019. With 259 million adult Americans, this 1.7 percentage point decrease in the labor force participation rate translates to a missing 4.4 million workers. And the narrative to date has primarily focused on how many Americans made changes following the COVID-19 pandemic (in response to lockdowns, layoffs, health concerns or care responsibilities) and the sizable fraction of these Americans who are still sitting on the sidelines. Given the steady drumbeat of news about how firms are unable to fill all their positions, there is much interest in how and when we expect these workers to return to the labor force. So, when can we expect them to join the labor pool?
2022 has not been kind to many investment portfolios; as Kenan Institute Executive Director Greg Brown argues, this is all attributable to the change in real interest and inflation rates.
As a destination for both migration and business growth, North Carolina must reassess the capabilities of local entrepreneurial and small-business ecosystems to ensure that its diverse population of aspiring entrepreneurs and small-business owners has equitable access to opportunities.
Yimfor, a Kenan Institute Distinguished Fellow, will discuss his recent work on how access to venture capital varies by the founder’s race and alma mater and explore mechanisms driving the variation.
From small towns to big cities and everywhere in between, there is still a long road ahead to address the current economic crisis spurred by the coronavirus pandemic and adapt to the new normal, but NCGrowth and SmartUp have been hosting webinars to provide communities with key resources. On Wednesday, May 20, three panelists offered their perspectives to explore the economic impacts of COVID-19.
Research from UNC Kenan-Flagler Finance Professor Eric Ghysels attaches explicit costs to a model’s classification errors, in this case concerning pretrial detention decisions, avoiding the one-size-fits-all symmetrical cost function of traditional machine learning.
While the gender pay gap has received significant attention in recent years, little progress has been made to close it; in fact, in 2019, women still earned only 82 cents for every dollar received by their male counterparts for equal work. Policymakers in recent years have developed creative solutions aiming to close the gap, including bans prohibiting employers from asking for a job applicant’s salary history. However, in this week’s Kenan Insight, new research from our experts examines whether such well-intentioned bans are inadvertently lowering wages for all employees.
Climatologists project that global temperatures may rise by up to four degrees Celsius over the next century. This projection raises a natural question: “Can we assess the impact that this temperature increase will have on the U.S. economy?
Join us for a fireside chat with General Mark A. Milley, U.S. Army 39th Chief of Staff, who will share lessons on organizational leadership from his career. Millay has had multiple command and staff positions in eight divisions and Special Forces throughout the last 35 years.
This year Rethinc. Labs joined the Duke Quantum Center and the IBM Quantum Hub at NC State to bring their Financial Services focus to the Triangle Quantum Computing Seminar Series. For our next discussion we welcome Dylan Herman, from the JPMorgan Chase Future Lab for Applied Research and Engineering (FLARE). The focus of the FLARE quantum program is to develop quantum algorithms for financial applications and quantum-resistant cryptographic solutions.
From the perspective of customers, there are two types of counterfeit products: deceptive and non-deceptive counterfeits. In the case of non-deceptive counterfeits, a customer can distinguish between a genuine article and a counterfeit version; she may still buy the counterfeit item because she cannot afford the genuine product. In contrast, the customer cannot differentiate a deceptive counterfeit item from the genuine product before buying it. Both types of counterfeits negatively affect a manufacturer’s profit and brand.
The jumps in the inflation rate over the last few months have been larger and longer-lasting than expected. For much of 2022 economic forecasters, including those at the Federal Reserve, assumed that higher inflation rates would be short-lived—or “transitory” using the preferred jargon of the day. Inflation was expected to start shifting back towards the Fed’s 2% target as supply-chain bottlenecks were resolved and a pandemic-induced shift in demand for consumer goods swung back toward consumer services. Instead, recent inflation prints have set 40-year records and we are seeing more discussion about the possibility of a “wage-price” spiral.
Elon Musk’s bid to purchase Twitter for $44 billion appears to have fallen apart, but the reality of what nearly happened, and still may, will probably be with us for good. Before attempting to terminate the deal, Musk spoke with Twitter employees and discussed his vision to turn the social media platform into the world’s town square. The wealthiest person in the world wanting to own space where people gather to mobilize, to call out injustices and criticize powerful organizations and governments, and to coo at the latest cat videos?
Kenan Institute Chief Economist Gerald Cohen explains why we're doubling down on our recessionary forecasts.
The passage of U.S. tax reform legislation in 2017 had an effect not only on companies based in the U.S., but on foreign firms as well, with Chinese companies seeing the biggest negative impact and companies in South America generally benefiting, according to a new study that looks at daily stock market returns around key dates leading up to the passage of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 (TCJA).
UNC Kenan-Flagler’s John Gallemore and co-authors found that, among other things, the complexity of the U.S. tax system has a disproportionately negative effect on small, domestic-owned and private firms.
Reactions from Wall Street and Main Street to how a company addresses – or doesn’t address – issues of gender inequality and sexual harassment affect social media sentiment, brand equity and market value, new research shows.
We study Granger causality testing for high-dimensional time series using regularized regressions. To perform proper inference, we rely on heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation consistent (HAC) estimation of the asymptotic variance and develop the inferential theory in the high-dimensional setting. To recognize the time series data structures we focus on the sparse-group LASSO estimator, which includes the LASSO and the group LASSO as special cases.
Longxiu Tian, UNC Kenan-Flagler assistant professor of marketing, shares his expertise in resilient business strategies and his perspective on firms' attempts to build trust and profitability with innovative consumer data management strategies.