Using a sample of the 48 contiguous United States, we consider the problem of forecasting state and local governments' revenues and expenditures in real time using models that feature mixed-frequency data. We find that single-equation mixed data sampling (MIDAS) regressions that predict low-frequency fiscal outcomes using high-frequency economic data historically outperform both traditional fiscal forecasting models and theoretically motivated multi-equation models.
Using a sample of the 48 contiguous United States, we consider the problem of forecasting state and local governments’ revenues and expenditures in real time using models that feature mixed-frequency data. We find that single-equation mixeddata sampling (MIDAS) regressions that predict low-frequency fiscal outcomes using high-frequency economic data historically outperform both traditional fiscal forecasting models and theoretically motivated multi-equation models.
We apply advances in analysis of mix frequency and sparse data to estimate “unsmoothed” private equity (PE) Net Asset Values (NAVs) at the weekly frequency for individual funds. Using simulations and a large sample of buyout and venture funds, we show that our method yields superior estimates of fund asset values than a simple approach based on comparable public asset and as-reported NAVs.
My inductive analysis using case studies helps identify and understand the processes whereby B-Corp certification can bring about a change in perception and practices at different levels.
Focusing on the incubation stage of a potential new industry, this article addresses a gap at the intersection of the external sourcing and market entry literatures by examining pre‐entry external sourcing of new resources.
The long-term upward trend in Hong Kong's housing price and its ever-increasing price-rent ratio has caused extensive concern from investors and researchers. Dynamic Gordon Model ties an asset's worth to the expected value of the future payoff stream accruing to the asset, and it has been widely used in the literature on finance and real estate asset. As far as we know, this model has not been applied to the research on the Hong Kong real estate market. In this paper, we used this model to analyze the quarterly date of Hong Kong housing prices and other economic indicators from 1999 to 2019.
The Small Business Investor Alliance surveyed the small business portfolios of Small Business Investment Companies to measure the impact the pandemic is having on their operations and employment. Small businesses are facing extreme cash flow concerns. Small businesses are already laying off a substantial number of employees and without a significant change in trajectory, layoffs are anticipated to increase tremendously. Data analysis provided by the Kenan Institute of Private Enterprise.
We have little knowledge about the prevalence of irreproducibility in the accounting literature. To narrow this gap, we conducted a survey among the participants of the 2019 JAR Conference on their perceptions of the frequency, causes, and consequences of irreproducible research published in accounting journals.
Using a comprehensive and proprietary dataset on international private equity activity, we study the determinants of buyout investments across 61 countries and 19 industries over the period of 1990-2017. We find evidence that macroeconomic conditions, development of stock and credit markets, and the regulatory environment in a country are important drivers of international buyout capital flows.
In this paper, we apply the ARMA-GARCH model to Hong Kong real estate market. We analyzed the monthly data of housing, office retail and factories from February 1993 to February 2019. The result of ARCH LM test indicates that volatility clustering is shown in there four kinds of real estate. The price volatility of housing is influenced by foreign exchange rate, especially the USD exchange rate. The commercial real estate market shows different, they are all influenced by unemployment. All these real estate shows limited inflation hedging ability in a short period. The result of the EGARCH model shows there were no asymmetric effects in the real estate market.
Scholars continue to debate whether voice and silence are opposites or distinct constructs. This ambiguity has prevented meaningful theoretical advancements about employees’ voice and silence at work. We draw on the behavioral activation and behavioral inhibition systems perspective to provide a conceptual framework for the independence of voice and silence and explicate how two key antecedents—perceived impact and psychological safety—more strongly relate to voice and silence, respectively. We further differentiate voice and silence by identifying their unique effects on employee burnout.
We examine the role of political affiliation during the selection of Opportunity Zones, a place-based tax incentive enacted by the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017. We find governors are on average 7.6% more likely to select a census tract as an Opportunity Zone when the tract’s state representative is a member of the governor’s political party.
Despite having the deepest and most diverse capital markets in the world, the United States still struggles to provide sufficient capital to many small businesses outside of major commercial centers as well as to women-owned and minority-owned businesses regardless of size or location. This paper reviews the academic literature and provides an analysis of some recent data to gain understanding of the causes of these gaps as well as the solutions for filling the gaps. Results indicate that the Small Business Administration’s SBIC program is an effective mechanism for providing capital to underserved geographies as well as to businesses owned by women and underrepresented minorities.
We analyze how Dodd-Frank-mandated risk retention affects the information investors extract from issuers’ retention choices in the CMBS market. We show that the required retention level is both binding and stringent.
I examine the liquidity effect of the adoption of ASC 606: Revenue from contracts with customers. Using a staggered difference-in-differences design, I find that the adoption of ASC 606 increases liquidity. Next, I examine the channels through which the adoption of the standard affects liquidity.
In this paper, we build up a portfolio in the Chinese residential real estate market. We separate 35 big cities in China into 3 groups with different criteria. Then we build portfolios for these groups, by comparing the efficient frontier and Sharpe ratio with the portfolio of full samples. We find out the most suitable criteria to be the Real Housing Price Increase Rate.
Private equity performance, both for buyouts and venture capital, has been highly cyclical: periods of high fundraising have been followed by periods of low performance. Despite this seemingly predictable variation, we find modest gains, at best, to pursuing realistic, investable strategies that time capital commitments to private equity. This occurs, in part, because investors can only time their commitments to funds; they cannot time when commitments are called or when investments are exited. There is a high degree of time-series correlation in net cash flows even across commitment strategies that allocate capital in a very different manner over time.
This paper provides a first look at newly available data on the holdings of private equity (PE) funds. Because research has been hampered by the lack of comprehensive, high-quality data on portfolio companies, this new source offers the potential for a wide range of research.
As live streaming of events (e.g., video games, political commentary, and makeup tutorials, among others) gains traction, pay-what-you-want (PWYW) pricing strategies are emerging as critical monetization tools. In this research, we assess the viability and efficacy of PWYW by examining the relationship between popularity (i.e., audience size) of a live streaming event and the revenue it generates under a PWYW scheme.
This paper provides the first study of compensation and pay-for-performance for top executives at non-profit endowments. Using a detailed breakdown of compensation from IRS filings over the 2009-2017 period, we find that pay packages of Chief Investment Officers (CIOs) depend more heavily on bonuses than do those for other non-profit executives.
Time series regression analysis in econometrics typically involves a framework relying on a set of mixing conditions to establish consistency and asymptotic normality of parameter estimates and HAC-type estimators of the residual long-run variances to conduct proper inference. This article introduces structured machine learning regressions for high-dimensional time series data using the aforementioned commonly used setting.
We find that Credit Rating Agencies (CRAs) see through transitory shocks to credit risk that stem from transitory shocks to equity prices, while market-based measures of credit risk do not. For a given stock return, CRAs are significantly less likely to downgrade firms with transitory shocks than those with permanent shocks. However, credit default swap spreads and model-implied default probabilities do not distinguish between such shocks.
Community banks are the central financial institution in many places. They have the capacity to alleviate credit constraints of small firms. This may increase economic resilience, delaying or mitigating the effects of the Great Recession. We estimate how the county-level banking access and community bank market share affect both the timing and duration of the Great Recession. Using the Cox Proportional Hazards Model, we find that communities with a higher community bank market share are either less likely to experience recession conditions, or experience these conditions later. Using the Heckman Selection model, we confirm these results, and show that communities with a higher community bank market share are less likely to experience recession conditions. This research provides the first link between local financial institutions, and economic resilience.
E-commerce platforms, such as Amazon, Alibaba and Flipkart, that match sellers and consumers at an unprecedented scale, operate their internal search engines to help buyers find relevant products from a large number of sellers, and also allow sellers to advertise to consumers for positions in the search listing. Determining an optimal ranking of products in response to a search query is a challenging problem for the platform because sellers have certain private information about their products that the platform does not have. Using a theoretical model, we show that sellers’ bids in ad auctions, through which sponsored slots are typically allocated, can reveal (some of) this private information to the platform (“information effect”), which it can optimally combine with information that it has about consumers to improve the placement of organic results, a practice we call “strategic listing”.
The essence of a brand is that it delivers on its promises. However, consumers’ trust in brands (CTB) has declined around the world in recent decades. As a result, CTB has become a major concern for managers. The authors examine whether CTB is influenced by marketing-mix activities (i.e., advertising, new product introduction, distribution, price, and price promotion) implemented by brands.
We survey the properties of commercial real estate (CRE) as an asset class. We first illustrate its importance relative to the US economy and to other asset classes. We then discuss CRE ownership patterns over time.
We study differences in the effects of prices, non-price promotions, and brand line length on brand shares at different retail formats. Our conceptual framework rests on the presence of trip level fixed and category level variable utility components and shows how the trade-off between these components results in (i) different formats visited on different types of shopping trips; and (ii) differential marginal sensitivities of brand shares to changes in marketing mix variables across trip types.
This study examines the antecedents and consequences of knowledge sharing and monitoring based governance strategies on emissions reduction. We theorize, and empirically test, the impact of supply base diversity in industry and geographic locations on the governance strategy choices. We find that sector and regional diversity both have a significant impact on emissions reduction strategies, yet their direct and interactive impacts are different. Regarding consequences, we find that engaging suppliers is associated with GHG emissions reduction for both buyers and suppliers.
Professor of Marketing Sridhar Balasubramanian and his coauthors studied the optimal management of tasks in technology-intensive projects. Engineers working on software maintenance projects strive to maintain customer satisfaction by resolving reported problems promptly. These engineers are typically faced with a continuous inflow of software problems that need fixing. However, there is substantial task uncertainty – it is unclear how much time and effort will be required to resolve each problem. Engineers must therefore make calls about how much effort and time they should allocate across problems. Their surprising finding was that managers must “ditch” unresolved problems after expending a specific amount of resolution effort – this effort level depended on the nature and source of the problems.
Scholars have long been interested in new industry emergence, highlighting that it could often be impeded by uncertainty across four dimensions: technology, demand, ecosystem, and institutions. Building on the insight that uncertainty stems from partial knowledge, we develop a conceptual framework that utilizes a temporal and a process perspective for knowledge generation and aggregation.
A consumer's decision to engage in search depends on the beliefs the consumer has about an unknown product characteristic such as price. In this paper, we elicit the distribution of price beliefs and explicitly study their role in a consumer's decision to search.
Empirical research in operations management has increased steadily over the last 20 years. In this paper, we discuss why this is good for our field and offer some comments on the qualities we admire in an empirical operations management paper.
This study examines the importance of social perception of corporate social responsibility (CSR) and irresponsibility (CSI). Drawing from social psychology literature on stereotypes, we argue that two fundamental dimensions of social perception—warmth and competence—help explain the underlying processes and conditions under which CSR leads to specific outcomes.
The last 20 years have been a period of tremendous growth for the PE industry. From its roots in the 1970s and 80s in the buyout and venture capital spaces, private capital has expanded dramatically in both scope and scale. Funds have gotten larger, the investor pool has broadened and the largest players have transformed themselves into fully diversified alternative asset managers, with offerings across a wide range of geographies and asset classes.
Many of the most prosperous places in the U.S. are hotbeds of technology and also the home bases of companies which exercise monopoly power across much larger territories – nationally, or even globally. This paper makes four arguments about regional income disparities.
What is the impact of higher technological volatility on asset prices and macroeconomic aggregates? I find the answer hinges on its sectoral origin. Volatility that originates from the consumption (investment) sector drops (raises) macroeconomic growth rates and stock prices.
Channels have traditionally been viewed as intermediaries that facilitate the transfer of products from manufacturers to consumers. Innovations in digital technologies help firms to integrate the customer experience across channels and devices. This new phenomenon is referred to as “omnichannel marketing.”
How do cities attract mobile firms? The answer, frequently, involves beer. Dr. Maryann Feldman has recently published an editorial describing how cities are increasingly selling themselves on quality of life metrics, talent, and trendy amenities that appeal to young professionals. Responding to Amazon’s HQ2 contest, cities across the country listed breweries among their city’s assets while wooing the technology giant. The article is based on a paper that three of her students wrote under her guidance, and the inspirations for which evolved out of a seminar Dr. Feldman taught on science and technology policy.
This article’s objective is to inspire and provide guidance on the development of marketing knowledge based on the theories-in-use (TIU) approach.