We find that Credit Rating Agencies (CRAs) see through transitory shocks to credit risk that stem from transitory shocks to equity prices, while market-based measures of credit risk do not. For a given stock return, CRAs are significantly less likely to downgrade firms with transitory shocks than those with permanent shocks. However, credit default swap spreads and model-implied default probabilities do not distinguish between such shocks.
Community banks are the central financial institution in many places. They have the capacity to alleviate credit constraints of small firms. This may increase economic resilience, delaying or mitigating the effects of the Great Recession. We estimate how the county-level banking access and community bank market share affect both the timing and duration of the Great Recession. Using the Cox Proportional Hazards Model, we find that communities with a higher community bank market share are either less likely to experience recession conditions, or experience these conditions later. Using the Heckman Selection model, we confirm these results, and show that communities with a higher community bank market share are less likely to experience recession conditions. This research provides the first link between local financial institutions, and economic resilience.
E-commerce platforms, such as Amazon, Alibaba and Flipkart, that match sellers and consumers at an unprecedented scale, operate their internal search engines to help buyers find relevant products from a large number of sellers, and also allow sellers to advertise to consumers for positions in the search listing. Determining an optimal ranking of products in response to a search query is a challenging problem for the platform because sellers have certain private information about their products that the platform does not have. Using a theoretical model, we show that sellers’ bids in ad auctions, through which sponsored slots are typically allocated, can reveal (some of) this private information to the platform (“information effect”), which it can optimally combine with information that it has about consumers to improve the placement of organic results, a practice we call “strategic listing”.
The essence of a brand is that it delivers on its promises. However, consumers’ trust in brands (CTB) has declined around the world in recent decades. As a result, CTB has become a major concern for managers. The authors examine whether CTB is influenced by marketing-mix activities (i.e., advertising, new product introduction, distribution, price, and price promotion) implemented by brands.
We survey the properties of commercial real estate (CRE) as an asset class. We first illustrate its importance relative to the US economy and to other asset classes. We then discuss CRE ownership patterns over time.
We study differences in the effects of prices, non-price promotions, and brand line length on brand shares at different retail formats. Our conceptual framework rests on the presence of trip level fixed and category level variable utility components and shows how the trade-off between these components results in (i) different formats visited on different types of shopping trips; and (ii) differential marginal sensitivities of brand shares to changes in marketing mix variables across trip types.
This study examines the antecedents and consequences of knowledge sharing and monitoring based governance strategies on emissions reduction. We theorize, and empirically test, the impact of supply base diversity in industry and geographic locations on the governance strategy choices. We find that sector and regional diversity both have a significant impact on emissions reduction strategies, yet their direct and interactive impacts are different. Regarding consequences, we find that engaging suppliers is associated with GHG emissions reduction for both buyers and suppliers.
Scholars have long been interested in new industry emergence, highlighting that it could often be impeded by uncertainty across four dimensions: technology, demand, ecosystem, and institutions. Building on the insight that uncertainty stems from partial knowledge, we develop a conceptual framework that utilizes a temporal and a process perspective for knowledge generation and aggregation.
A consumer's decision to engage in search depends on the beliefs the consumer has about an unknown product characteristic such as price. In this paper, we elicit the distribution of price beliefs and explicitly study their role in a consumer's decision to search.
Empirical research in operations management has increased steadily over the last 20 years. In this paper, we discuss why this is good for our field and offer some comments on the qualities we admire in an empirical operations management paper.
This study examines the importance of social perception of corporate social responsibility (CSR) and irresponsibility (CSI). Drawing from social psychology literature on stereotypes, we argue that two fundamental dimensions of social perception—warmth and competence—help explain the underlying processes and conditions under which CSR leads to specific outcomes.
The last 20 years have been a period of tremendous growth for the PE industry. From its roots in the 1970s and 80s in the buyout and venture capital spaces, private capital has expanded dramatically in both scope and scale. Funds have gotten larger, the investor pool has broadened and the largest players have transformed themselves into fully diversified alternative asset managers, with offerings across a wide range of geographies and asset classes.
Many of the most prosperous places in the U.S. are hotbeds of technology and also the home bases of companies which exercise monopoly power across much larger territories – nationally, or even globally. This paper makes four arguments about regional income disparities.
Access challenges associated with high-cost pharmaceuticals have jump started discussion of solutions ranging from state-based boards reviewing drug price increases to harnessing Medicare’s purchasing power for “price negotiation” to old-fashioned price-setting.
What is the impact of higher technological volatility on asset prices and macroeconomic aggregates? I find the answer hinges on its sectoral origin. Volatility that originates from the consumption (investment) sector drops (raises) macroeconomic growth rates and stock prices.
Channels have traditionally been viewed as intermediaries that facilitate the transfer of products from manufacturers to consumers. Innovations in digital technologies help firms to integrate the customer experience across channels and devices. This new phenomenon is referred to as “omnichannel marketing.”
We examine realized spreads and price impact in clock and trade time following each trade in all common stocks from 2010 to 2017. The term structure of realized spreads (price impact) is sharply downward (upward) sloping, implying that (a) market maker profitability is sensitive to speed, and (b) the choice of the horizon of measurement is critical when drawing inferences from spread decompositions.
How do cities attract mobile firms? The answer, frequently, involves beer. Dr. Maryann Feldman has recently published an editorial describing how cities are increasingly selling themselves on quality of life metrics, talent, and trendy amenities that appeal to young professionals. Responding to Amazon’s HQ2 contest, cities across the country listed breweries among their city’s assets while wooing the technology giant. The article is based on a paper that three of her students wrote under her guidance, and the inspirations for which evolved out of a seminar Dr. Feldman taught on science and technology policy.
After years of decline, increases in American youth tobacco usage have pushed the tobacco control debate back into the forefront of the public health conversation. Youth tobacco use increased from 2011 to 2018, largely driven by e-cigarette usage, which grew from 1.5% to 20.8% of American high school students, representing an increase of 2.83 million adolescents. Despite extensive evidence that e-cigarette chemicals cause morbidity including immediate, harmful changes in endothelial function in healthy nonsmokers, 72% of teenage e-cigarettes users believe e-cigarettes cause some, little, or no harm.
This article’s objective is to inspire and provide guidance on the development of marketing knowledge based on the theories-in-use (TIU) approach.
Except for relatively short but intense episodes of high market risk, average idiosyncratic risk (IR) falls steadily after 2000 until almost the end of our sample period in 2017. The decrease has been such that from 2012 to 2017 average IR was lower than any time since 1965.
Our briefing paper offers a perspective that centers on what we can reliably learn from the general direction of AI impacts on business change, rather than just speculate about. Only then can executives assess what AI points to for their firm’s development in its current and potential competitive ecosystem, leveraging its organization, technology and financial capabilities.
The autonomous car began as an opportunity that required breaking all kinds of limits: engineering, navigation, adjusting to traffic conditions, distinguishing objects, predicting what those objects might do, reacting in time, calculating quickly and juggling a vast number of ever-changing variables. The developers used more and more computer power to address these needs. But the initial bounding limit turned out to be very fundamental; rule-based computers don’t have pattern power.
AI has become close to bewildering in its promises, met and unmet, its terms and tools, acronyms, “use” case examples of wild successes countered by duds and disappointments. There’s an overall lack of clear pointers for business leaders to shape the direction, priorities and pace of their organization’s AI activities. Over the past two years, we have explored the widening AI space; what stood out in our reviews is that there is today a lack of management perspective on AI.
Using a novel database on venue short sales and market design characteristics, we ask: Where do short sellers exploit their information advantage?
Gentrifying cities increasingly are adopting inclusive and equitable development policies, strategies, tools, and regulatory practices to minimize, if not altogether eliminate, the demographic and economic dislocations that often accompany their growing attractiveness as ideal places to live, work, and play for a creative class of young people and well-resourced retirees who are predominantly white. Creating greater opportunities for historically under-utilized businesses to grow and prosper through enhanced local government contracting and procurement is one mechanism through which gentrifying cities are trying to generate greater equity and shared prosperity.
Governments often subsidize startups with the goal of spurring entrepreneurship using tax incentives. Exploiting the staggered implementation of angel investor tax credits in 31 U.S. states from 1988 to 2018, we find that these programs increase the number of angel investments and average investment size.
Marketing academics are keenly aware of the seismic shifts in today's marketing environment caused by digital (dis)intermediation. In this article, we discuss four types of digital (dis)intermediation, and how they affect branding activities of incumbents and new firms.
We directly test the reliability and relevance of investee fair values reported by listed private equity funds (LPEs). In our setting, disaggregated fair value measurements are observable for funds’ investees; and investee accounting fundamentals are also publicly disclosed. We find that LPE fair value measurements reflect equity book value and net income in a manner consistent with stock market pricing of listed companies.
We investigate tax planning by privately-held corporations. Privately-held firms are commonly believed to face lower costs of tax planning relative to publicly-held firms, and thus are believed to engage in greater tax planning.
We examine how firms’ accounting quality affects their reaction to monetary policy. The balance sheet channel of monetary policy predicts that the quality of firms’ accounting reports plays a role in transmitting monetary policy by affecting information asymmetries between firms and capital providers.
This study finds that greater asymmetric timeliness of earnings in reflecting good and bad news is associated with slower resolution of investor disagreement and uncertainty at earnings announcements. These findings indicate that a potential cost of asymmetric timeliness is added complexity from requiring investors to disaggregate earnings into good and bad news components to assess the implications of the earnings announcement for their investment decisions.
We study multi-period sales-force incentive contracting where salespeople can engage in effort gaming, a phenomenon that has extensive empirical support. Focusing on a repeated moral hazard scenario with two independent periods and a risk-neutral agent with limited liability, we conduct a theoretical investigation to understand which effort profiles the firm can expect under the optimal contract. We show that various effort profiles that may give the appearance of being sub-optimal, such as postponing effort exertion (“hockey stick”) and not exerting effort after a bad or a good initial demand outcome (“giving up” and “resting on laurels,” respectively) may indeed be induced optimally by the firm.
We document evidence of a positive association between public firm presence and import competition. Using cross-sectional differences in the expected costs of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act as an instrument for changes in public firm presence after the Act, we find evidence that public firm presence cause changes in import competition. Subsequent mechanism tests suggest that this effect arises because U.S. securities regulation requires public firms to prepare and make publicly available audited financial reports. Although these reports are purportedly for the benefit of investors, our mechanism tests suggest that foreign competitors also make use of the performance and investment information disclosed in these reports to compete with U.S. firms.
Designing modern call centers requires an understanding of callers’ patience and abandonment behavior. Using a Cox regression analysis, we show that callers’ abandonment behavior may differ based on their contact history, and changes across their different contacts.
We investigate the extent to which loan officers generate individual effects on the design and performance of syndicated loan deals. We construct a novel database containing the identities of 6,821 loan officers involved in structuring syndicated loan deals. This data allow us to exploit movement of loan officers across banks to disentangle loan officer effects from bank fixed effects and estimate loan officers’ influence on both lending terms and loan performance. We find that loan officers have a significant influence on loan terms and loan performance that is incremental to bank and borrower characteristics.
Consumers’ brand associations are essential to the development of effective marketing strategies. Understanding consumers’ brand associations enables firms to determine their brand’s positioning and informs new product development and marketing mix design. A rich and abundant source for consumers’ brand associations is user-generated-content (UGC).
Networks of serial entrepreneurs, investors, and their affiliated companies play a critical role in driving entrepreneurial behavior, investor focus, and innovation hot spots within specific industry sectors and are critical for shaping the character of robust regional economies.
On Jan. 3, 2019, Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. announced its proposed acquisition of Celgene Corp. for approximately $74 billion. The Federal Trade Commission issued requests for additional information and documentary materials to the companies on March 25, 2019, that were “focused on marketed and pipeline products for the treatment of psoriasis.”
In order to address the FTC’s concerns, BMS plans to divest Celgene’s Otezla (apremilast) drug, which is a phosphodiesterase-4 inhibitor indicated for the treatment of moderate to severe psoriasis and psoriatic arthritis. Psoriasis is an autoimmune disease with multiple subtypes, with large skin plaques being the most common manifestation.
In the run up to the financial crisis, the essential functions financial intermediaries played seemed to become less important. Commercial and industrial loans, as well as residential mortgages, the quintessential banking products, were securitized and sold.
A core idea in competitive strategy is that a firm’s ability to capture value depends on the creation of value: maximizing the gap between willingness to pay and cost. This value can depend on or be enhanced through complementarity, where the willingness to pay for an offering is increased in the presence of another offering. Substitutability is assumed to have the opposite effect.
CEO successions represent critical junctures for firms. Although extant research explores the performance consequences resulting from different succession types, what remains underexplored is what happens when the firm rehires a former CEO (e.g., a “boomerang CEO”).
The pricing of prescription drugs comes under persistent public scrutiny, yet limited empirical evidence details the determinants of these price levels. This study provides a price function specification for newly launched drugs, with marginal cost and pricing power components.
I investigate the exit outcomes of start-ups backed by government VCs (GVCs) and private VCs (PVCs), using a sample of 8,106 start-ups in China funded by VCs between 1991 and 2013 and exit information updated in 2018. I find that start-ups backed by GVCs are less likely to exit through domestic Initial Public Offerings (IPOs), oversea IPOs, and M&As. GVC backed start-ups are also less likely to list on the intermediate public market before companies go to IPOs.
Employee cynicism is on the rise, and thus is increasingly part of the social fabric in modern workplaces. In this paper, we investigate whether interactions with cynical others may produce undesirable effects on employee energy.
This article investigates patent citations made to published patent applications. Although citations to patent publications are conceptually indistinguishable from citations to granted patents, they are omitted from all standard measures. We find that publication citations are a large and growing portion of patent citations, and that they differ statistically from citations to granted patents on several important dimensions. We conclude that omitting publication citations is likely to generate biased measures, and that standard measures of patent citations should be corrected. We release our computer code and corrections for future use.
Using a novel dataset on global private equity investments in 19 industries across 52 countries, we find that labor productivity, employment, profitability, and capital expenditures increase for publicly-listed companies in the same country and industry as private equity investments. Our results show that positive externalities created by private equity firms are absorbed by other companies within the same industry.
Why do young firms pay less? Using confidential microdata from the US Census Bureau, we find lower earnings among workers at young firms. However, we argue that such measurement is likely subject to worker and firm selection. Exploiting the two-sided panel nature of the data to control for relevant dimensions of worker and firm heterogeneity, we uncover a positive and significant young-firm pay premium. Furthermore, we show that worker selection at firm birth is related to future firm dynamics, including survival and growth. We tie our empirical findings to a simple model of pay, employment, and dynamics of young firms.
We examine how product market competition affects the disclosure of innovation. Theory posits that product market competition can cause firms to increase their disclosure of innovation to deter competitors. Consistent with this reasoning, we find that patent applicants in more competitive industries voluntarily accelerate their patent disclosures, which are credibly disclosed via the United States Patent and Trademark Office.
Recent health policy efforts have attempted to promote constructive conversations regarding cost-effectiveness by increasing transparency for both patients and physicians. Spurred by access and cost challenges resulting from increasing pharmaceutical prices, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) proposed a rule that would require direct-to-consumer prescription drug advertisements to include the list price for a typical 30-day course of therapy, according to their weighted average cost. This Viewpoint discusses implementing price transparency for health care products and services where physicians spend an increasing proportion of their time—in electronic health records (EHRs).